Hits don’t make Maple Leafs tough to play against

The hits just keep on coming, unfortunately the wins are not. And while Brad Treliving is attempting the Brian Burke redux approach of making the Toronto Maple Leafs tougher to play against, he’s achieving the same results right down to not even having first round picks to show for it.

Shockingly, hits don’t equal wins. Hitting has been part of a winning formula for the Florida Panthers and they have replaced the Bruins as the gold standard for “tough to play against,” but one could argue that a Selke centre, 100-point winner, a former Vezina winning goaltender, a deep blue line, a Rocket Richard/Selke candidate player, along with a GM willing to constantly upgrade, and move on from bad fits probably makes more of a difference than the hit count on the NHL.com stat page. (You could also argue that Barkov and Tkachuk being absent probably justifies their slow start to the season.)

The first question to ask is whether the Leafs were a tough team to play against in the past couple of seasons? I think the answer would come back with “no” from most respondents.

By the hit counts, the Leafs have been one of the toughest teams in the league for the past three seasons. I’m not sure anyone would also make a case for the Maple Leafs to be tough to play against or have the reputation as imposing physical presences during that time. The past couple of seasons of Ryan Reaves finishing his checks against other fourth liners hasn’t changed a lot, and if anything the shot differentials under Craig Berube support the notion that you throw more hits because your team doesn’t have the puck, and the Leafs have had the puck a lot less this year.

The Leafs lineup is filled with empty calorie toughness. Simon Benoit might finish a lot of hits but teams will take that trade to play against him. When Benoit is lined up against bottom six competition, it is safe to say his hits matter less as he’s not impeding skilled players. The same is true of players like Steven Lorentz and Sammy Blais who bring fourth line toughness and can bring ten minutes of energy a night but they are not playing the most impactful minutes against the most impactful competition. This isn’t a fault and honestly on a team that wants to be tough to play against, a fourth line that features Lorentz and Blais, and has someone like Simon Benoit on the third pairing makes sense, they just don’t define the identity of the team.

Players like Max Domi, who is comfortable sticking up for his teammates but offers little toughness during play, and Brandon Carlo, who seems to be coasting off the “Big Bad Bruins” reputation, have been part of the issue as well for the Leafs. While both had the reputation of players being tough to play against, neither offers much in the way of practical intimidation where the opposition takes not of the fact they are on the ice. In fact, both seem like a gift to the opposition as Domi isn’t great at holding the offensive zone and is the ideal player to have trapped in the Leafs end.

Carlo being utilized in the Leafs’ top four defence is also a gift for the opposition and isn’t going to result in much intimidation and outside of blocked shots and sunk cost fallacy there isn’t any reason for not accepting that he’s third pairing defender at this point.

Dakota Joshua does seem to deliver on what could be reasonably expected on him. He’s been physical, he’s blocked shots, but much like Benoit, Lorentz, and Blais, he should be earmarked as fourth line energy type player instead of the Leafs insisting that his 18 goal season with a shooting percentage north of 20% wasn’t an outlier. Joshua’s cap hit and his 2023-24 season certainly push the Leafs towards wanting him higher up in the lineup but accepting him as a fourth liner and revisiting the idea of Scott Laughton as a potential top nine player with a history of a bit more offensive consistency might be the better play for the Leafs going forward.

In addition to the should be fourth liners, and third pairing defencemen the Leafs do have some signs of “tough to play against” players that bring skill with them.

Matthew Knies and Jake McCabe have been bright spots for the Leafs in this regard and both seem to be fully bought into what Craig Berube and Brad Treliving want from them. Knies has been better than expected offensively while bringing a happy go lucky version of hard hitting hockey, while Jake McCabe is snarly physical defenceman who competes his ass off most nights. He’s legitimately tough to play against and occasionally that takes a toll on him.

The Leafs have other elements that show promise in this regard. William Nylander’s driving of the net and difficulty in stripping him of the puck make him a difficult to play against forward even if defence and hitting are not part of his game. And angry Morgan Rielly or playoff Morgan Rielly are versions the Leafs need to see more of. Rielly when he’s doing everything it takes to be successful can be difficult to play against and with his game slowing down these are elements that are going to be important for him to include to keep his icetime up.

Others like Bobby McMann, Nick Robertson, and Easton Cowan are all capable of having snarl as well.

The biggest issue is the Leafs snarl means nothing with an increasingly toothless bite. You can look back to the Leafs lineup with Kasperi Kapanen, Connor Brown, and Zach Hyman as part of the roster and in addition to some aggressive play in all of their games there was also more speed and offensive push. Without speed, puck movement, and the threat of offense it is hard to consider the Leafs tough to play against.

You can also look to the tough defensive game that Craig Berube and Brad Treliving are looking to create, the one that has been so successful shutting down the Leafs in the playoffs in past seasons. The team hasn’t delivered on a clogging the centre of the ice while applying pressure to puck carrier. Whether it’s not having the right on ice personnel for it, the system not being coached properly, or the fact that what works against the Leafs might not be what works best against the rest of the league being the issue, the defence looks slow and out of place, and in no way hard to play against.

The Leafs are caught up in looking at the Panthers and assuming what worked for them will work for the Leafs, that certainly isn’t the case. And if the Leafs were to successfully mirror the Panthers, the first thing they need to do is not accept mediocrity at all level of the organization, not focus on mirroring the Panthers hit count.