How should the Edmonton Oilers approach their goaltending situation?

I’d say there are only about five bona fide, proven starters that even have a chance of being moved – Ilya Sorokin, Juuse Saros, Jeremy Swayman, Jordan Binnington, and Thatcher Demko.

Now, though there has been some discussion amongst some Oilers fans regarding Sorokin, I would highly doubt the New York Islanders are in a full rebuild and willing to give up their star starting goalie. And even if they were, it is likely that the Oilers don’t nearly have the future assets to trade for Sorokin at a retained cap hit, as they have a barren prospect pool and don’t possess a first-round pick in 2026. I think you can safely cross out this option.

Thatcher Demko is intriguing. David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period has reported that the Vancouver Canucks may be gauging the market for Demko, and with the Canucks already having Kevin Lankinen on a long-term contract and a young Arturs Silovs coming off a 2025 Calder Cup victory, it isn’t unrealistic at all to see the Canucks potentially moving on him. The Oilers can certainly fit Demko at 50% retained.

But the primary concern with Demko is the injury history. He has the ability to be a premier starter, but can he stay healthy enough to be a net upgrade on the value that Skinner brings? Not a full guarantee.

From there, Swayman, Saros, and Binnington are all fascinating options, and with each of the Boston Bruins, Nashville Predators, and St. Louis Blues being on somewhat of a retool, there’s a non-zero chance that they could be available at the right price.

It is worth noting that Linus Ullmark, the 2023 Vezina winner, was traded last summer for Joonas Korpisalo, Mark Kastelic and a first-round pick. Would it be crazy to think that perhaps a package of Skinner, the 2027 1st, and a prospect like Sam O’Reilly or Beau Akey could work for one of those three goaltenders with some retained salary? It’s probably not a likely possibility at all, but considering the trades we’ve seen before in this league, I don’t think you can totally rule it out either.

Option 2: Deploy a 50/50 tandem

If Edmonton’s management finds it far too challenging to acquire a legit starter, and this is likely (and unfortunately) the most realistic scenario, an option strongly worth considering is running a 50/50 tandem.

Before we dive into this option, let’s talk about Stuart Skinner in more detail, the most polarizing Oiler not named Evan Bouchard. 

On the one hand, Skinner has a GSAx of 38.5 per EvolvingHockey’s model, which essentially means that, based on the volume and quality of the shots that he has faced, Skinner has saved roughly ~38-39 goals above expected. That would rank 11th in the NHL, ahead of some recent cup-winning goalies such as Sergei Bobrovsky and Adin Hill. At age 26, with two SCF appearances under his belt, it’s actually quite easy to see why the Oilers should keep him.

But the main issue in Skinner’s game is the inconsistency and “streakiness.” Here’s a closer look of his stats heading into the 2025 playoffs:

While Skinner’s net results may be strong in the aggregate, there has been significant variance in his performance. The primary flaw in his game is that he tends to have stretches of either outstanding, arguably elite play or stretches of some of the worst goaltending results in the league, and there is very little middle ground. This streakiness continued to be on display in the 2025 postseason.

All things considered, I believe two things can be true at once. One, it is reasonable to say that Skinner’s inconsistency is the primary factor limiting him from being a true bonafide starter, but two, at age 26, it is also difficult to outright deny that Skinner doesn’t have any potential to be a starter at all; the results clearly indicate otherwise.

This is why I would be strongly open to Option 2. Acquiring a solid “1B” goalie and splitting the workload between this goalie and Skinner could/would have multiple benefits. It provides the Oilers with a reliable failsafe option for when Skinner has one of his “bad” stretches, and it reduces both the physical workload and the mental pressure on Skinner, which would likely result in more consistent results.

Now, Calvin Pickard has exceeded many people’s expectations, including my own. He has been a very solid backup in Edmonton. But, considering his relative inexperience in a bigger role, and a generally underwhelming track record throughout his career, the Oilers should absolutely look for an upgrade on him if a 50/50 tandem is what they desire.

In terms of options, UFAs Jake Allen and Alex Lyon have a GSAx of +21.8 and +6.8, respectively, over the past two seasons, both higher than Pickard’s -2.6. Allen is a more older option, but with multiple 40+ GP seasons under his belt, and Lyon’s high-danger save percentage in Detroit has been outstanding; considering Skinner’s struggles with HD shots, Lyon could be a solid stylistic fit.

There are some more younger, but high-upside options too. For instance, Elliotte Friedman recently stated that he wondered if Buffalo’s 26-year-old goalie, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, could be available. His results aren’t strong, but there is genuine starter potential here. Additionally, if the Canucks decide to keep Demko, 24-year-old Silovs could also be avaliable.

Other potential upgrades on Pickard could include Pittsburgh’s Tristan Jarry, Chicago’s Arvid Soderblom, and more.

Option 3: Run it back

TSN’s Ryan Rishaug recently reported that although the Oilers remain open to a change in goal, “change for the sake of change isn’t going to be made.” And so even though Stan Bowman vocally stated that goaltending is one of the main areas the team will look to address, the possibility of running back the same tandem absolutely remains for Edmonton.

To play devil’s advocate here, I can see the argument. As discussed in detail above, there are risks with letting Skinner go, and Calvin Pickard has performed well enough to be a decent backup. And even if you do want to make a goalie upgrade, there is an argument to be made that perhaps the Oilers should focus on upgrading the forward core and rounding out the defence this summer, while they reevaluate the goaltending situation at the deadline, where the goalie market could be much different.

Still, this option is undoubtedly my least preferred out of the three.

Firstly, it will likely be much easier to trade for a goalie upgrade in the summer as opposed to the deadline, as the available goalie options at the past few trade deadlines have been quite subpar. If anything, it should be the other way around; it might be wise to acquire a goalie now and then evaluate the top-six winger situation at the deadline after seeing how Matthew Savoie could perform in the top-six. And furthermore, I simply don’t believe it is acceptable to run this tandem again for the 2026 playoffs.

Is it impossible to win with Skinner and Pickard? Of course not; they just made it to the cup finals in back-to-back years with this tandem. But given Skinner’s inconsistency and Pickard’s uninspiring track record, it is a major risk to do it again.

As we’ve seen in the cup finals, the margin for error in the playoffs is razor-thin; just a single bad game by your goalie can be the difference between a series win and a loss. And, the Oilers have come within 1-2 games of winning the Stanley Cup despite having a save percentage below .900 for the significant majority of their games. Simply put, the Oilers need much more reliable net-minding, and I’m not sure if their current tandem can provide that.

In summary, the Oilers are presented with multiple options here on how to address their goaltending, each with its own pros and cons. Pursuing a high-end elite starter is the option with the most upside, but it is also the riskiest and the most difficult to carry out. A balanced 50/50 tandem with Skinner carries less upside, though it is a much safer and more realistic bet. With the start of NHL Free Agency on Tuesday, we may soon see what the Oilers’ management ultimately decides to do.