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How the Edmonton Oilers can get revenge on the St. Louis Blues for last season’s offer-sheets
Kim Klement-Imagn Images

The Edmonton Oilers go into this summer again as Stanley Cup runners-up. As good as they were through the first three rounds of the playoffs, they simply weren’t good enough to beat the Florida Panthers. While blame is due to many parties for the loss, two big culprits were on display: the lack of depth at forward and on the blueline, as well as goaltending. The Oilers can look to the St. Louis Blues for both the problem and the solution.

Last summer’s offer sheet debacle was a major issue for this team. The Blues made offers above market value to both Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg. With the Oilers opting not to match on either, both left Edmonton for St. Louis. And while the Oilers did manage to find pieces to fill those voids, including Kasperi Kapanen, Vasily Podkolzin, and John Klingberg all for basically nothing, none were as good as the two that they lost.

This stings. The team would have been so much better with both Broberg and Holloway in the lineup, and had the Oilers been able to pay both what they felt was a fair market price at the time, both would have likely been instrumental in this year’s playoffs. It’s hard to think about the Blues and not want to extract some form of revenge.

How the Edmonton Oilers can get revenge on the St. Louis Blues

The Oilers enter the offseason with nearly $12M in cap room. The only notable player that they have to sign this summer is Evan Bouchard, and while he will command a decent chunk of change, they can easily squeeze him under the cap.

Aside from re-signing Connor McDavid on July 1, as he enters the final year of his deal this season, the Oilers have one year left on both of their current netminders, and will undoubtedly be looking for an upgrade. Stuart Skinner was unable to get the Oilers through the playoffs, with the team turning to Calvin Pickard for stretches of very important hockey. Without him keeping the team in it, this could have been a much earlier elimination than it was. It’s clear that neither is the starter that this team needs.

Enter Joel Hofer. The former fourth-round pick has been quietly excellent playing with Jordan Binnington in St. Louis and is a restricted free agent this summer. In his last three seasons, he has been above a 0.900 save percentage each year while playing on a very average Blues side. However, the Blues have continued to use Binnington as their 1A netminder, turning to him in all seven playoff games on top of more regular season games than Hofer.

Hofer clearly has a lot more to show, but being stuck behind a 31-year-old goalie entering a contract year is not a great position to be in. This is an opportunity for the Oilers to swoop in and sign him to an offer sheet.

How does an offer sheet work?

In its most simple form, any NHL team is able to make an offer to a restricted free agent on another team to tempt them to join their team. If the player opts to sign the offer, the team that owns their rights is given the choice as to whether they want to match that offer or not. If they match, the player stays, but if not, they player goes to the other team on the deal that was offered. In return, the team that loses the player gets compensation from the team that made the offer.

The offer compensation depends on the size of the deal, and can range from nothing to four first-round picks depending on how large of an offer it is. The key caveat is that the team must give their own pick, not a pick in the same round that they acquired from another team.

This table breaks down the offer sheet thresholds:

2025 AAV Tier Compensation
$1 – $1,544,424 No Compensation
$1,544,424.01 – $2,340,037 1 Third-Round Pick
$2,340,037.01 – $4,680,076 1 Second-Round Pick
$4,680,076.01 – $7,020,113 1 First-Round Pick
1 Third-Round Pick
$7,020,113.01 – $9,360,153 1 First-Round Pick
1 Second-Round Pick
1 Third-Round Pick
$9,360,153.01 – $11,700,192 2 First-Round Picks
1 Second-Round Pick
1 Third-Round Pick
$11,700,192.01- ∞ 4 First-Round Picks

A Joel Hofer offer sheet would make a lot of sense for the Oilers

Hofer would immediately be an upgrade on both Skinner and Pickard, and allows the Oilers to move on from one or both goalies between now and the start of the season. At just 24-years-old and with a good body of work already at the NHL level, Hofer could be the goalie that this team has needed for a long time.

The cost for him wouldn’t be cheap. The Oilers need to strike a balance between paying more than the Blues would be willing to match while also not giving away multiple picks that they do not have in the process.

This would mean an offer of $4.68M. This would be a big upgrade on what Hofer is expected to earn on his next deal, which, according to capwages is in the $2.6M range. The Blues have just over $5M in cap room this summer, and will be unlikely to match this offer, given what else they have to do.

The issue for the Oilers is that they do not have their second-round pick. That pick was traded to Utah (then Arizona) for Zack Kassian. They then flipped the pick to New Jersey for John Merino. The Oilers would need to reacquire that pick from New Jersey to make this deal work.

While not completely disqualifying, not having their own first or second-round picks does make a decent-sized offer sheet tough to manage. The Oilers could try to navigate a smaller deal, but it would have to be for a less desirable player.

Does it make sense for the Oilers to target Joel Hofer

Hofer would be a big step forward for this team, and would solidify the goaltending position for a long time if he works out. This is the one piece that the Oilers have needed for literally decades. To acquire a good young goalie, plus exact revenge on the team that stole away Holloway and Broberg, would be a nice added bonus. The key question remains, what would it take to get the second-round pick back from the Devils?

This article first appeared on The Oil Rig and was syndicated with permission.

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