Aside from Ekholm, Bouchard has most commonly played with Brett Kulak this season at 5-on-5. While they have been out-scored 8 to 10, their 59 percent expected goal differential is an encouraging indicator for long-term success, as the Oilers have out-chanced opponents 106 to 78 with the pairing on-ice.

These results aren’t anything overly new either. While the sample isn’t exceedingly large (92 TOI), the Kulak – Bouchard duo held a fantastic 70 percent expected goal share in 2023-24, out-scoring opponents 8 to 6 this time. In total, the two played nearly 300 minutes together over the past two seasons and have overwhelmingly controlled play. Very encouraging.

Of course, Kulak won’t be able to nearly fill the massive hole left by Ekholm, particularly in terms of in-zone defending and puck retrievals under forecheck pressure. But, the gap between Ekholm and Kulak in terms of zone entry defending and controlled zone exits is not all that massive. The case to play this pair is quite compelling.

On the other hand, Walman – Bouchard have been deployed most frequently as of late during Ekholm’s absence, and overall, Bouchard has been Walman’s most common defensive partner since his arrival in Edmonton. However, their results are a direct opposite of the Kulak – Bouchard pair; with Walman and Bouchard on-ice together at 5-on-5, the Oilers have out-scored opponents 5 to 4, but they have been out-shot and out-chanced. They’ve given up a notably high amount of high-danger chances against.

That being said, the big caveat here is that this pairing has primarily played during the timespan in which McDavid and Draisaitl have sustained injuries. In a fully healthy lineup, those raw numbers should be much better, and so alongside the fact that the sample size is less than 130 minutes, feel free to take these results with a grain of salt. 

Now, the Nurse – Bouchard option is quite fascinating. They’ve only played 90 minutes together this season, but their early results are outstanding. And, again, this isn’t new; from 2021-22 through 2023-24, the Nurse – Bouchard pairing has produced an excellent 58 percent expected goal share, holding a +101 scoring chance differential in a strong sample of 746 minutes.

However, as I discussed this in my article last weekend about the Nurse pairing, my main concern with a Nurse – Bouchard pair is both defenceman’s propensity for making the “big mistake.” Put differently, both can be prone to making critical, glaring errors in their own zone leading to high-quality chances or goals against that aren’t always properly captured in the possession numbers. It’s certainly worth noting that this is the area where playing with Ekholm has benefitted Bouchard the most.

So, although Nurse – Bouchard may be excellent offensively and produce a fantastic xG%, pairing Bouchard with someone that not only struggles to cover up for their partner’s mistakes but is also mistake-prone themselves could be highly risky. I’m not so sure if a team that already has major question marks in net should be taking that risk.

All things considered, I believe the most optimal pairings would be the following:

Kulak – Bouchard

Walman – Emberson

Nurse – Stecher

Firstly, as discussed earlier, Kulak and Bouchard have produced strong results together, and have a legitimate chance of producing close to similar play-driving results to Ekholm – Bouchard (while being much less error-prone than Nurse – Bouchard).

Of course, there’s still a compelling case for deploying Walman and Bouchard together with a healthy McDavid and Draisaitl – that pair’s dynamic puck-moving together would be heavily beneficial against strong forechecking teams – but with Ekholm out, it may be best for the team to “spread out” that puck-moving ability. This deployment ensures that, even with Bouchard’s pair off-ice, the Oilers can still ice a strong defenceman that can move the puck.

Some may have doubts about Ty Emberson playing in a larger role, which is perfectly reasonable, but Walman has proven to be able to produce good results regardless of his partner. If Walman can effectively drive a top defensive pairing in San Jose despite playing the most difficult competition alongside a mediocre forward group, it’s fairly reasonable to assume he can propel a second-pairing with Edmonton’s forwards to quality results even next to Emberson.

It’s also worth noting that the Darnell Nurse and Troy Stecher pair has quietly produced a solid 54 percent goal differential together. If Kulak – Bouchard can sustain their current results in a larger sample size / tougher role, and if Walman can drive his own pairing as he did in San Jose, then simply a positive goal differential is likely sufficient from the Nurse – Stecher pairing.

Of course, the Oilers could even double-shift Walman or Nurse to play together if needed from time-to-time; that was the team has done with Nurse and Kulak for most of the season.

What about the PK?

A somewhat undermentioned effect of the absence of Ekholm will be on the penalty-kill.

In the 2023-24 regular season, it was Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci who were Edmonton’s most frequently deployed defenceman on the PK. Overall, the PK that season was quite inconsistent; it did have some excellent stretches of play, particularly in the first two months subsequent to Kris Knoblauch’s hiring, but it was fairly mediocre for the second half.

In the 2024 playoffs, the coaching staff made an adjustment, and Ekholm was moved to the team’s top PK unit. This move clearly paid dividends, as the Oilers had, by far, the best penalty-kill this past postseason. Edmonton allowed just a mere one goal on the penalty-kill in the Western Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals combined. And despite being consistently matched against opposing team’s top PK units, Ekholm was on-ice for the fewest PK shots against per hour among Edmonton’s most regular PK defenders.

That will be a big hole to fill this time around.

Optimally, the ideal PK pairings would be Kulak – Emberson and Nurse – Walman. Though Emberson has had some struggles at 5-on-5, he has been Edmonton’s best RHD at suppressing scoring chances on the PK.

Final Thoughts; how far can the Oilers go without Ekholm?

Even prior to all these injuries, the Oilers already had a long list of question marks, ranging from the depth scoring to the finishing ability to the goaltending consistency. The potential loss of Ekholm is yet another nail in the coffin, and creates yet even more doubt regarding if the Oilers can reach the cup finals again (or even come close).

Perhaps one reason for hope is the fact that Edmonton just two goals away from winning it all last season despite their second-pairing being out-scored 14 to 25 at 5-on-5 in the last playoffs. The Oilers made it that far with perhaps only three defencemen performing well; Bouchard, Ekholm and Kulak. In reference with the results of the last playoffs, the addition of Walman and the potential improvement of Nurse could make up for a lot of the hole left by Ekholm. But, whether the penalty-kill can even be league-average without Ekholm in the playoffs is a huge question mark on its own.

All things considered, it goes without saying that numerous players will need to step up.

On the left side, the Oilers will be hoping for Brett Kulak to be able to handle a larger role, and Darnell Nurse will need to be significantly better. If Nurse plays at the level at which he did last postseason, I’m not sure if the Oilers could even make it past the first round.

These next few months will also be a massive test for Evan Bouchard’s true ability. With contract negotiations looming, this will be his chance to prove to his skeptics that he can drive a pairing to strong two-way results without Ekholm.

Can Edmonton’s players rise up to this challenge? Only time will tell.