John Gibson Thrives on High-Danger Shots: A Breakdown

Wins in three straight starts, including a shutout against the Vancouver Canucks in his most recent start. The numbers haven’t been perfect; over the three games that he won, he has still allowed seven goals against. However, that is a huge improvement from his previous three, which were all losses where he gave up five goals. I’ve been on record before saying that John Gibson needs to stop making such big movements to improve. I don’t exactly think that he’s changed that; he still makes big movements, but there might be a reason why. What’s worked for Gibson as of late? Has his style changed? Have the Red Wings changed in front of him? I’ll do my best to give you the goalie-specific recap of the past three wins for Gibson.

Boston: 0.895% 38 Saves -0.98 GSAx

Certainly not a darling of a performance. Gibson was good enough to get the win barely. Here’s the thing: Gibson actually has a really clear trend over these games. Gibson is best when saving shots in close that don’t come from a deflection. So dekes, low drives, and anything like that, Gibson stops at a good clip. Looking at the xG numbers, it tells a similar story: the Bruins, who were supposed to score, weren’t always the ones who did. Only one of the top five players on the Bruins who were supposed to score actually did. The Aspirot goal was actually one of the least likely goals to be scored.

Seattle: .889% 27 Saves 0.10 GSAx

A similar story happened in Seattle, Gibson was more comfortable with the higher danger shots. Of the three Seattle goals, two were not tipped. Neither of the untipped shots had more than a 3% chance of actually going in, according to MoneyPuck. Gibson was able to turn aside a handful of shots from the slot that were of much higher quality. So is this the trend? Gibson just thrives more on unscreened shots in close?

Vancouver: 1.000% 39 Saves 4.95 GSAx, Steal

I want you guys to take a look at this heat map if you don’t believe me. John Gibson, in his shutout game, faced more high-danger chances than he had in any other game and turned them aside. His numbers looked great, and he was even credited with a steal, which is where the GSAx is above the margin of error in a win. It’s an odd case, and I’m not saying to let the other team in close, but it seems the big exaggerated movements by Gibson might actually have some rhyme or reason to them.

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