Lightning Should Avoid a Steven Stamkos Reunion

However, with his plummeting numbers this season, there are already rumors of Stamkos leaving Nashville via trade. While the Vancouver Canucks are becoming a popular destination, some have speculated about a reunion with his former team, the Tampa Bay Lightning (6-5-2). While it would be a sentimental return of the Lightning’s captain, there are many reasons why the Lightning trading for Stamkos wouldn’t be a good idea.

Reason No. 1: His Age

The concerning drop-off becomes worse when you factor in Stamkos’ age. He’ll turn 36 on Feb. 7, and it’s doubtful he could regain his form at this age. There are several players defying Father Time in the league right now, such as Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Alex Ovechkin; skaters that maintain their offensive firepower well into their 30s and even 40s.

At the end of his Lightning tenure, it looked like Stamkos would be one of those skaters Father Time gave a pass to, so some believe that with his old team, he could find his fountain of youth. However, there’s a reason why the Lightning signed Guentzel instead of him: age. Guentzel is just 32 years old, and he should still produce at a near point-per-game rate for at least three more seasons.

Trading for Stamkos also comes at the cost of giving young forwards ice time in the NHL. Conor Geekie and Gage Goncalves are progressing slowly, but they both need more time in the NHL to evolve and grow their game. Getting someone like Stamkos would take away opportunities for Geekie, Goncalves, and a few more forwards.

Reason No. 2: His Contract

Stamkos’ performance makes his contract a lot worse. When Nashville signed him to a four-year, $32 million contract on July 1, 2024, it was deemed reasonable, maybe even a bargain. Unfortunately, the contract looks pretty rough, especially with the no-movement clause.

According to Spotrac, Stamkos’ cap hit is $8 million a season. That’s higher than potential trade deadline deals like Nazem Kadri ($7 million), Alex Wennberg ($5 million), or Pavel Zacha ($4.75 million). Nashville would most likely have to retain salary to trade him this season, maybe even adding draft capital. Regardless, Stamkos would have to waive his no-movement clause for Nashville to trade him anywhere.

If Nashville doesn’t receive interest on Stamkos, they could realistically buy him out before next season. Per PuckPedia, a buyout on him would save the Predators $3.375 million in 2026-27 and $3.125 million in 2027-28. Nashville would lose $1.625 million from 2028-30, but it seems like a more realistic path for Stamkos to be on another team, like the Lightning.

Reason No. 3: Tampa’s Cap Situation

Even if Stamkos were bought out by Nashville, it’s doubtful Tampa Bay would be able to sign him for anything over the minimum. Simply put, Tampa Bay has bigger fish to fry.

The Lightning will have several contract decisions to make next offseason. After 2025-26, Ryan McDonagh, Darren Raddysh, Oliver Bjorkstrand, and Charle-Edouard D’Astous are all unrestricted free agents, and J.J. Moser is a restricted free agent.

According to PuckPedia, Tampa Bay would have a little under $27 million in cap space next season if they somehow didn’t re-sign any of those players, but even then, the Lightning still have to work out an extension with Nikita Kucherov (UFA after 2026-27 season) and Andrei Vasilevskiy (UFA after 2027-28 season).

Simply put, Tampa Bay already has a lot of big decisions to make with their current core. While it would be an emotional return and perhaps a needed change of scenery for Stamkos, Tampa Bay cannot afford the reunion.