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Maple Leafs Labeled Top Threat to Sign Oilers' Connor McDavid in 2026

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Antonio Losada | Last updated Jun 19, 2025 10:53 AM ET

The 2026 NHL free agency period could bring seismic change to the league, and BetCanada has already set the odds on where Edmonton Oilers superstar center Connor McDavid may land if he gets to market.

While Edmonton remains the favorite to sign McDavid before July 1, 2026, the Toronto Maple Leafs top the list of outside contenders to land the face of the league.

"Given McDavid’s success in Edmonton, with five consecutive seasons notching 70-plus assists and eight 100-point seasons in the last nine years, it’s worth remembering that McDavid’s likely going to stay north of the border for years to come," BetCanada's Christopher Boan wrote. "That’s why we give the Oilers -210 odds of keeping him, as the superstar enters the final year of his deal that’s set to earn $12.5 million."

That line reflects a 67.7% implied probability of McDavid re-signing in Edmonton before July 1, 2026, with the earliest possible date for an extension set on July 1, 2025, when McDavid will become eligible to do so.

However, BetCanada presented Toronto as the leading outside suitor, with +1250 odds, or a 7.4% chance.

“The star-studded Toronto Maple Leafs [are] the leading outside suitor,” the site stated.

If McDavid hits free agency in 2026, his hometown team — the Toronto Maple Leafs — are the favorite to sign the superstar. Toronto’s cap flexibility could play a major role, as the Leafs will enter the 2026 offseason (as things stand) boasting a massive $43.7 million in cap space.

Other teams listed at lower odds include, in order, the New York Rangers (+2250), Los Angeles Kings and Vegas Golden Knights (both +2750), and then the rebuilding Chicago Blackhawks (tied with the Montreal Canadiens at +3500).

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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