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John Tavares, Toronto Maple Leafs (Jess Starr/The Hockey Writers)

Maple Leafs’ Tavares Is Aging Like Fine Wine

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers | By The Old Prof | Last updated Mar 29, 2025 12:20 PM ET

Since joining the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2018, John Tavares has been a consistent offensive weapon. When he came to the team, he was known as an elite offensive player who could score and contribute offensively in different ways. However, because of the nature of his contract, many hockey pundits thought he would be overpaid during his last few seasons.

However, that has been far from the case. This season, Tavares is not just maintaining his scoring pace—he is adding new dimensions to his game, including an increased physical presence and selective shot-taking. This has made him a more well-rounded player as he ages.

Tavares’ Evolving Game: A New Dimension of Physicality

The evolution of Tavares’ game this season is most noticeable in his physicality. Traditionally known for his finesse and sharp hockey IQ, Tavares has stepped up his physical play significantly. With 80 hits this season, he’s showing a more aggressive approach to the game. Previously, that was more of a rarity in his playstyle. This change has made him even more productive in “dirty” areas of the ice, especially around the net.

By ramping up his physical play, Tavares has created more chances for himself and opened up space for his teammates. His increased willingness to battle in the corners and front of the net has opened up higher-quality scoring chances, making his offensive game even more productive. Whether camping out in front of the net looking for rebounds, digging for pucks along the boards, or fighting off defenders in tight spaces, Tavares shows that his contributions have expanded beyond putting the puck in the net, although he’s doing that too.

A Surge in Shooting Percentage: Improved Shot Selection?

One of the more curious aspects of Tavares’ game this season has been his shooting percentage, which currently sits at 19.2%. This is a notable jump from his career average of 13.1%, raising the question: why the increase?

One can only guess. However, logic suggests his improved shot selection could be a key factor. With age, many players learn to be more selective in their approach to shooting, opting for high-danger opportunities rather than firing from lower-percentage areas. Tavares has shown his adaptability as he ages, and this season he may be focusing on better chances to score, such as shots taken closer to the crease or on his more assertive side. Whatever the reason, the fact that Tavares is getting in a position to take these higher-quality shots could undoubtedly be a reason for his elevated shooting percentage.

Tavares’ increased physicality has also likely played a role. By driving to the net and positioning himself in front of the goalie, he’s likely creating more prime shooting opportunities, where rebounds or deflections are more common. His ability to be more involved in the “dirty” areas of the game has translated into more scoring chances, which could explain why his shooting percentage has risen.

Can Tavares Maintain This Elevated Shooting Percentage?

Although Tavares’ current shooting percentage is encouraging, it is natural that shooting percentages tend to regress toward a player’s career norms over time. A rate above 19% is hard to sustain for an entire season, and his shooting percentage will likely return to its typical range as the season progresses. The one variable that might have an impact is having Craig Berube as the head coach. That’s worth considering more.

Still, even if Tavares’ shooting percentage drops, it would not diminish his overall value. His offensive consistency—scoring at a rate of 0.5 goals per game—remains impressive, and his ability to contribute in various ways ensures that he remains a vital part of the Maple Leafs’ success.

In line with the changes in his shooting percentage, Tavares has decreased the number of shots he takes. He averaged 3.5 shots per game in the last two seasons, but this season, he is averaging only 2.66 shots per game. Despite taking fewer shots, Tavares’ offensive output has not dipped. This also suggests that he has become more selective, focusing on higher-quality chances rather than increasing his shot volume.

This shift could also be attributed to changes in his role (and the role of others) within the team. Tavares has spent much of the last few seasons working in the corners and below the goal line, with William Nylander working higher in the zone. However, this season, Nylander has been more active in the corners. That’s allowed Tavares to occupy better shooting positions closer to the net. These subtle shifts in the roles and responsibilities of the players around him could explain both his reduced shot volume and his increased efficiency.

A Look Toward the Future: Tavares’ Next Contract and Legacy

Tavares’ resurgence this season has sparked discussions about his future with the Maple Leafs. As noted, when he signed his current contract, there were concerns about how his production would age, especially given the back half of the deal. However, with Tavares producing at a point-per-game pace this season and showing more well-rounded play, he’s proving that he still has plenty of gas in the tank.

As Tavares finishes the final year of his contract, his performance this season will impact any potential extension. Given his age—he’ll be 35 in September—his next deal might not mirror the massive contracts the team’s younger stars signed. However, something in the range of $7 million per year over a 3-4 year term could be a realistic expectation. The Maple Leafs must balance Tavares’ desire for hometown stability and salary with the team’s salary cap constraints and future goals.

The Bottom Line: Tavares Is Aging Like Fine Wine

Tavares is proving that, as he gets older, he’s only becoming more well-rounded and effective. His increased physicality, more selective shooting, and ability to produce offensively despite a slight drop in shot volume are signs that he is aging like fine wine.

Tavares’ versatility on the ice, leadership, and commitment to improvement ensure that he remains a crucial asset to the Maple Leafs as they chase success in the future. Whether or not his shooting percentage stays as high as it is now, one thing is clear: Tavares remains a key player who will continue to contribute to the team’s success for the foreseeable future. Fans should expect to have the now-assistant captain back on the ice for another season or two. If I’m correct, I expect Tavares will have a job with this organization when his playing days are over.