Mitch Marner to the Blackhawks? Here’s Why It Doesn’t Add Up

Mitch Marner sits on top of the Unrestricted Free Agent list, and that's with indications that Marner will not be staying in Toronto. Regardless of what you think of his post-season performance, Marner is an elite player who will bring improvement to any roster. Especially the Blackhawks. 

Let's assume Mitch Marner will be going to the Blackhawks. What does he bring to the table?

The 28-year-old winger just posted a career high of 102 points. And it's not just offense that Marner excels at, he plays an excellent two-way game. New head coach Jeff Blashill prioritizes two-way play, and at a glance, it looks like Marner would actually be a good fit. 

The Blackhawks are dead-set on Connor Bedard and Frank Nazar being their top two centers. The organization still lacks a true elite winger. Marner checks that box and would make an excellent pair with Bedard.

With the salary cap jumping to $95.5 million, the Blackhawks are projected to have $29 million in space. Marner is expected to ask for a $14 million contract for seven years. For a player of his caliber, you can eat term. Money isn't an issue.

But the Hawks aren't expected to be in Stanley Cup conversations until around 2030 (that's from projections by Scott Powers). Marner will be in the fifth year of his deal, and he will be 33 in 2030. 

The concern regarding Marner's age isn't the fact that he'll be older. The concern is, does Marner want to wait that long to play games that matter again?

Marner has made the playoffs every season in his career. He's in his prime. He wants to win. 

The Blackhawks' selling point right now isn't a winning team. It's a prospect pool. Do you really believe that alone will attract Marner to Chicago?

Marner will want to go to a team that can win. And teams like Vegas have new cap space to play with. 

The math just doesn't add to Mitch Marner wanting to come to Chicago, even if Kyle Davidson pursues him. 

So, if not Marner, then who? 

What's On Tap Next?

The list gets less appealing. Right now, according to the Blackhawks' plan, if you are signing a player for term, it better be an elite player. There aren't players that meet that mark. There are players, like Nikolaj Ehlers, who would have made sense a year ago, but don't fit Kyle Davidson's vision. 

Beyond Mitch Marner, there isn't a player who will "make a big splash." It will most likely be a quiet free agency for Chicago. The "splashes" fans are looking for will probably come from a trade. And that's something worth exploring.