NHL bets: Stanley Cup Final Game 1 prop targets

Shots SGP targets

I like the idea of rolling out a SGP tonight on some Florida shot props, as I do expect the Panthers to own the SOG edge for any game on home ice. While I have some investment in the studs here, I also want to go down the lines a bit, as the depth pieces for the Panthers should conceivably have some softer matchups that they can take advantage of against Edmonton.

Aleksander Barkov

Barkov may have his work cut out for him slowing down Connor McDavid's line, but I can't ignore his recent performance nor his history against Edmonton.

The latter is perhaps most compelling, as Barkov has averaged an absurd 6.3 SOG per game across his last four meetings with the Oilers, never once falling below four shots. Barkov has 2+ shots in eight straight games, every single home game, and he averages 3.2 SOG per game at home this postseason.

Gustav Forsling

You have to love what Forsling has been doing lately. The defenseman has 2+ shots in 11 straight games and 14 of 17 this postseason. He's gone for 3+ SOG in seven of his last nine, and he's logged 7+ attempts in four straight.

At home, Forsling is averaging 3.2 SOG per game across his past five.

Vladimir Tarasenko

Don't sleep on Vladimir Tarasenko, one of the only players on Florida who knows what it takes to win a Cup. Tarasenko ended last round strong, going for 2+ shots in four straight, three or more shots twice, and attempting 5+ shots in three straight.

Tarasenko has 10 SOG in his last three at home and has averaged 3.0 SOG per game in his past eight meetings with Edmonton.

Evan Rodrigues

Rodrigues can be hit-or-miss here, but he's been more hit lately for Florida. Rodrigues went for 3+ shots in three of his last four games last round, all of which came at home. He now has 3+ shots in five of his last seven on home ice, and he tallied three SOG in both meetings with the Oilers this season.

How I'm playing these four names

Note: If you want to be patient, considering holding off until Saturday afternoon, when ESPN should open up alternate shot lines that would include OT. You could also just SGP each player at their standard lines on DraftKings, if you want the OT protection.

I am choosing to load these up on FanDuel at the alternate numbers so that I can get these looks out early. Do what feels best for you, but do know that FanDuel does not include overtime shots.

• Betting .75u: Barkov, Forsling, Tarasenko & Rodrigues 2+ shots each (+442 FanDuel)
• Betting .25u: Barkov, Forsling, Tarasenko & Rodrigues 3+ shots each (+5199 FanDuel w/ 30% NHL boost)

Enjoy Game 1!