NHL Predictions: November 17th Utah Mammoth vs Anaheim Ducks

Anaheim Ducks Storyline

Anaheim’s recent skid stems from uneven defensive play and costly penalties. The Ducks took fourteen penalty minutes in Minnesota and never established rhythm or offensive momentum. However, the model-friendly pieces remain clear. Anaheim owns a 54.02 percent goal share at five-on-five and continues to finish well above expected, posting a 10.23 percent shooting rate. Carlsson leads the team with 26 points in 18 games and ranks among the league’s best in individual expected goals per sixty. Meanwhile, Gauthier and Terry continue to drive the middle of the ice, and Chris Kreider gives the top six another scoring layer.

Furthermore, Lukas Dostal projects to start tonight and remains steady at .903, outperforming Utah’s crease by a meaningful margin. Even so, Anaheim’s biggest flaw remains high-danger defence. Natural Stat Trick ranks them 31st in high-danger expected goals against, and recent breakdowns have left their goaltenders exposed. If Anaheim is to reset tonight, it begins with discipline, structure, and faster exits, particularly against Utah’s aggressive forecheck.

The Model

Our blended model simulates this matchup 10,000 times using four independent inputs: the in-house projection, MoneyPuck, the betting market with vig removed, and Advanced Hockey Stats. Each source is equally weighted to provide a balanced probability view. Results are recalculated nightly to reflect updated team strengths and recent form.

Across the simulations, Utah wins 51.8 percent of outcomes (fair odds ~–107), while Anaheim wins 48.2 percent (+107). Advanced Hockey Stats favours Utah at 58 percent due to superior shot-share and expected-goal control, while MoneyPuck leans Anaheim at 52.6 percent thanks to stronger finishing and goaltending metrics. The market has tilted toward Utah since opening, reflecting confidence in their territorial superiority. However, Anaheim’s elite shooters keep the projection tight. Overall, the matchup projects as a volume-versus-efficiency contrast, with Utah owning the process and Anaheim owning the finish.

NHL Prediction

Expect Utah to control early possession, but Anaheim’s finishing talent and goaltending stability should keep the Ducks in favourable game states throughout the night. Furthermore, returning home after consecutive shutouts often sharpens structure under Joel Quenneville, and Anaheim’s top line has historically bounced back quickly after low-output stretches. Utah’s territorial edge is real, yet their 87.5 percent five-on-five save percentage continues to undercut otherwise strong process numbers. Meanwhile, Dostal provides Anaheim a meaningful edge in the crease, especially if the Ducks can avoid the penalty issues that plagued them in Minnesota. Ultimately, this projects as a volume-versus-efficiency clash, and Anaheim’s finishers, supported by cleaner breakouts and last change, should tilt the late-game moments.

Prediction: Ducks win 3–2 (48.2% win probability)

2025–26 Season Prediction Record: 4-3

Prop Bets of the Night

We went 3 for 3 in our last prop bet section and look to keep the momentum rolling. Tonight’s prop card starts with a player angle that fits both the matchup and Anaheim’s expected rebound: Leo Carlsson anytime goal (+200). After being shutout, Anaheim’s top centre is positioned for a bounce-back performance, especially against a Utah team carrying an 87.5 percent five-on-five save percentage. Carlsson leads the Ducks in individual expected goals and has consistently driven their most dangerous sequences; returning home provides the ideal reset. The second look is Ducks team total over 2.5 goals (–130). Utah’s defensive structure is strong, but their goaltending instability continues to undercut it, and Anaheim’s elite finishers typically convert at home even in lower-event games. Both plays align cleanly with a projected 3–2 Ducks victory, leaning on Anaheim’s scoring talent without requiring a high-scoring environment overall.

Season Betting Record: 8–9 (+1.27 units)

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