Nugent-Hopkins’ new phase: Oilers 2025-26 player review

The decline is underway

On January 18, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins celebrated his 1000th NHL game. The Edmonton Oilers honoured his milestone with a ceremony attended by his friends, family, teammates, and over 18 thousand fans who had watched his 15-year journey with the franchise unfold.

Reliving all the milestones and memories on the video board at Rogers Place was enough to make any fan emotional. Not just because he’s done so much for the team and the community over the years, but because his time as an impact player for the Oilers is winding down. 

While Nugent-Hopkins still spent a healthy portion of this season next to Connor McDavid, his production at five-on-five more closely resembled a bottom-six forward for the second campaign in a row. 

Despite playing much of the season on the top line, Nugent-Hopkins produced fewer points per hour than middle-six forwards Kasperi Kapanen (1.79), Jack Roslovic (1.73), and Matt Savoie (1.51).

It wasn’t just the raw production either — HockeyViz ranked his five-on-five offensive play driving five per cent below league average.

Kris Knoblauch gave Nugent-Hopkins some runway to work through his struggles, but he ultimately began a gradual shift down the lineup as the season progressed. Before the Olympics, he spent 65 per cent of his time on ice with McDavid, but in the final 24 games, that fell to 42 per cent. That spot was taken by Matt Savoie, who produced at a 65-point pace post-Olympics.

He’s been a fixture in Edmonton’s top six since he first stepped foot on Rexall Place ice in 2011, but Nugent-Hopkins is finally making his way down the depth chart. That same shift is taking place on the penalty kill, too. He dropped to fifth among Oilers forwards in penalty kill time on ice per game after leading the team in 2024-25. And frankly, that was a light demotion relative to his performance. Nugent-Hopkins was on the ice for 11.8 goals against per hour on the PK, while the team only gave up 6.9 per hour without him. 

The one area where Nugent-Hopkins still performed like a top-of-the-lineup player this season was on the power play. He scored eleven goals with the man advantage, while driving offence at an eleven per cent rate above league average. There’s no rush for change on the top-ranked power play unit, but if they falter at any point next season, don’t be surprised if the Oilers start to experiment with some younger players.

Third-line centre?

The Oilers are reportedly targeting a top-six forward this offseason, and if that’s the case, they won’t be spending big on a third-line centre in free agency. Nor will they have any space for Nugent-Hopkins in the top six.  

The cheapest solution would be to have him fill the third-line centre role full-time rather than paying a premium in the lacklustre free agent pool. At minimum, he could serve as a stopgap until a more affordable option shakes loose. 

It’s tough to accept that Nugent-Hopkins is no longer the player he used to be. Age is inescapable.

The timing of his decline isn’t ideal for the Oilers as they cling to their championship aspirations, but the sky isn’t falling. Savoie looks poised to take that top line role, and Nugent-Hopkins can still help Edmonton’s cap situation by being the third-line centre rather than a pricey free agent. His time at the top of the lineup may be winding down, but he’s still a necessary piece of the puzzle moving forward. 

Other player reviews…

• Jason Dickinson earned the organization’s trust
• Jack Roslovic showed flashes during an inconsistent campaign
• Kasperi Kapanen had a productive second season in Edmonton
• Edmonton must move on from Henrique after offence dries up
• Connor Murphy stabilized the second pair
• Spencer Stastney can succeed in a sheltered role
• Darnell Nurse’s future uncertain after inconsistent season
• Colton Dach shows high potential
• Max Jones thrived in sheltered role
• Ty Emberson took a step forward
• Curtis Lazar fulfilled role for cheap cost
• Has the game passed Janmark by?
• Matt Savoie inspires optimism
• Trent Frederic’s worst-case season
• Clock is ticking for Zach Hyman