
The New York Islanders forever changed the trajectory of their franchise when they selected Matthew Schaefer with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NHL Draft.
Expectations were going to be high for the 18-year-old, but he would be given some time to grow into a role with the NHL team. Even the highest expectations that were placed on him heading into his first season, Schaefer managed to blow away.
It took no time flat for the Islanders and their fan base to realize they had a real superstar in the making on their hands. Schaefer hit the ground running and never stopped, producing one of the best rookie campaigns in NHL history.
He was the unanimous selection for the Calder Trophy. His 23 goals tied the rookie defenseman record held by Brian Leetch, and his 59 points were the most by an 18-year-old ever. He led all rookies and New York in minutes played, averaging 24:41 per game.
Heading into Year 2, everyone is excited to see what Schaefer has in store as an encore. And based on where he has landed in the NHL prospect tiers, the expectation is that he will continue to be great.
The Islanders star is one of four players who landed in Tier 1 - MVP, along with Macklin Celebrini of the San Jose Sharks, who is the top player in this exercise. Connor Bedard of the Chicago Blackhawks is No. 3 and Leo Carlson of the Anaheim Ducks is No. 4.
How elite of a landing spot is that for Schaefer, who was in the 1B tier? There are only four defensemen who made any level of Tier 1 among NHL players: Cale Makar of the Colorado Avalanche, Quinn Hughes of the Minnesota Wild, Zach Werenski of the Columbus Blue Jackets and Rasmus Dahlin of the Buffalo Sabres.
That is double the number of defensemen who were in Tier 1 last year, as Makar and Hughes were the only ones ahead of the 2025-26 campaign to make it. They are both in the 1B level of the tier, but there are some evaluators who believe Schaefer should be even higher than that.
“By moving Schaefer firmly into the tier, his projection is now, after just one season, being set at future-best-D-in-the-world. And get this: After I slotted him in 1B, the only feedback I got was one scout who said he thinks he's 1A, which would actually place his projection above current Makar/Hughes!” wrote Scott Wheeler of The Athletic (subscription required).
That is an incredibly high standard to hold a soon-to-be 19-year-old to, but it speaks volumes to just how good Schaefer looked during his rookie season. As he continues to develop his own skill set and the team around him improves, his numbers should only continue ticking up.
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