
The offseason is now in full effect following Carolina’s Stanley Cup title. Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what teams will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Minnesota.
The Wild’s front office preached patience for years while navigating the dead cap obstacles provided by Zach Parise‘s and Ryan Suter‘s buyouts. Now, those restrictions are almost entirely in the rearview with a sharply increasing salary cap upper limit to boot. Their newfound sense of freedom allowed general manager Bill Guerin to make two of the most consequential moves in recent memory over the course of last season, handing out Kirill Kaprizov‘s record-breaking eight-year, $136MM extension and pulling off the Quinn Hughes blockbuster acquisition. While his work helped the Wild reach the second round for the first time in more than a decade, they were quickly stamped out by the Avalanche when they got there and still don’t stand above the rest as a true Stanley Cup favorite in the NHL’s most top-heavy division. Doing so with a new megadeal kicking in will be Guerin’s make-or-break.
The best gift the Wild can give themselves this summer is cost certainty, whether it’s restrictive or not. The new cornerstone of their defense – that cost them the equivalent of four first-round picks to acquire – is entering the final year of his contract at a now-bargain $7.85MM cap hit and becomes eligible to sign an extension in 11 days.
No one is expecting that news to drop on July 1. There has long been well-founded speculation that Hughes would love to, at some point in his career, link up with New Jersey-based brothers Jack Hughes and Luke Hughes, whether that’s with the Devils or elsewhere.
That’s not to say he isn’t interested in extending his stay in the State of Hockey. He made it clear after the Wild’s season ended last month that he was open to extension discussions this summer.
A max-term deal to keep him committed to Minnesota for his whole prime seems unlikely for reasons mentioned above. The Athletic’s Michael Russo reported that the Wild tried to acquire Luke to join him this season but were unsuccessful. With that very real storyline in mind, most are expecting a three-year extension to align the expiry of Quinn’s next deal with Jack’s current one, allowing those two to pick their next destination together in 2030.
Of course, that would be a rare choice for a player in his position, but the desire to play with his brothers is an extenuating circumstance. AFP Analytics’ extension projection is an eight-year term at just north of $15MM per season. That cap hit likely wouldn’t change much on a shorter-term deal to make him the league’s new highest-paid defenseman by a wide margin. It would also leave the Wild with around $30MM in projected cap space for 2027-28 with half their roster unaccounted for. That’s worth monitoring.
Acquiring Hughes came at the expense of thinning out Minnesota’s already fragile center depth, just as Marco Rossi was beginning to hit his stride. With Rossi out of the picture, there’s no clear-cut top-six option outside of two-way standout Joel Eriksson Ek who’s better cast as a high-end second-liner.
Danila Yurov, a late first-round selection in 2022, could be an option long-term after seeing some significant time down the middle last year. But he’s a natural winger and only managed 12 goals and 27 points as a rookie, not the type of production worthy of earning a look down the middle next to Kaprizov.
Minnesota’s large existing financial commitment to Kaprizov and their pending one to Hughes, plus the assets they already gave up to acquire him, likely take them out of the picture for any truly marquee No. 1 piece – not that there are even any available at the moment. A lower-end first-line option, though, like the Red Wings’ Dylan Larkin, is feasible.
He’s coming off a fifth straight 30-goal, 60-point season and won’t be back in Detroit next season after requesting a trade. Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press believes the Wild are one of three teams on the initial list of clubs for which he’s willing to waive his no-move clause, so that’s one obstacle out of the way.
Aside from their center question, this offseason will still see notable change to Minnesota’s forward group. They have several veterans hitting the free agent market, particularly on the wings.
One of them, recent second-line mainstay Marcus Johansson, has already opted to return to his native Sweden and won’t be back. Also hitting the open market are Mats Zuccarello, Vladimir Tarasenko, and trade-deadline pickup Nick Foligno.
Tarasenko is the youngest of that group at age 34. It’s fair to question whether any of them should be brought back. With that bit of organizational depth needing replenishing, it’s fair to wonder if Guerin will target several younger names on the open market – potentially some non-tendered RFAs in need of a fresh start – to fill those support slots up and down the forward lineup.
The Wild’s strong special teams on both ends were a big reason behind their 104-point record. Their 5-on-5 possession numbers – which the past several Stanley Cup champions have now shown are usually a great marker of postseason success – were uncharacteristically poor.
Minnesota’s defense-oriented identity through most of their franchise history has usually served them well in that regard. Yet they only controlled 48.8% of shot attempts at 5-on-5 last year, 24th in the league and their second straight year under the 50% mark.
The Wild will need to decide whether their possession struggles, coinciding with head coach John Hynes’ hire in late 2023, are a coincidence or not. After back-to-back playoff appearances, they’re not overly eager to make a coaching change.
Analytics-forward front offices such as Florida’s and Carolina’s are fast becoming the mark of consistent championship contenders. It’ll be up to Guerin now whether he decides to follow that increasingly proven path.
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