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Potential free agent losses for the Toronto Maple Leafs
Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The Toronto Maple Leafs, both by choice and by necessity, will look different when October rolls around. After nine straight attempts with the “Core Four” yielded just two playoff series wins across three different head coaches, changes have to be made. The domino at the top, former President of Hockey Operations Brendan Shanahan, has already fallen.

Now, it’s time to take a look at which could follow, in terms of the players on the ice.

The pending free agents who have re-signed

The Leafs haven’t waited around to get some pieces of business done. July 1 acts as an unofficial deadline to get players re-signed, to avoid any and all threat of a player moving on to another team, or being offer-sheets. The three names that have committed to staying in Toronto for several more years are John Tavares, Matthew Knies, and Steven Lorentz.

Tavares re-upping was surprising in more ways than one. Mildly, it was a surprise as the whole “changing the DNA of the team” tangent could have very easily seen him sent out to the open market. More shockingly, coming in at a greatly reduced $4.38M AAV is a coup for the franchise. For the second time, Tavares has shown that he’s in Toronto for the love of the team, not the dollar amount on his cheques.

Knies was almost certain to remain a Leaf. The only question hinges on whether or not the team could get him a new contract before July 1, knowing other teams would have chomped at the bit to sign him to an offer-sheet. With time to spare, Knies has been freshly extended for six more years, with a $7.75M AAV that will age gracefully in a rising cap environment. An offer sheet could have seen Knies exceed $8M, or even $9M annually, so achieving that seven and three-quarters amount is a significant win for the Leafs.

The (blue-and-) white elephant in the room

Let’s get the biggest fish out of the water right away. Mitch Marner isn’t a Leaf anymore. It has been a slow, painful divorce unfolding over several months, but most notably the past month and a half.

After agreeing to a sign-and-trade, Marner is now a Vegas Golden Knight for eight years. He’ll be making $12M a year, less than what was offered by the Leafs during the season. On the bright side, the Leafs got back Nic Roy, a very solid 3C.

This will be the unquestioned biggest loss from the Leafs roster in free agency, and the true “DNA change” the Leafs seek to make. Marner has always been a fantastic regular-season point-getter and two-way force whose game isn’t the best fit for playoff hockey’s unforgiving intensity. The Leafs need to match that intensity better, and it’s become clear it will take this sacrifice to do so.

Other UFA’s the Leafs could be losing

Max Pacioretty is the biggest UFA name the Leafs have besides Marner, and initially, it did look like he could be moving on, or even retiring. Time has changed thinking, however, and the guy who scored the series-winning goal against the Ottawa Senators in the playoffs has changed his tune. Pacioretty has sounded more open to re-signing in Toronto, so for now, call this one undecided.

The UFA who’s almost a lock to leave is Jani Hakanpää. It’s unfortunate his health status limited him to just two NHL games this past season, and a couple more on an AHL conditioning stint. The Leafs have seven defencemen locked up until 2027, however, so there isn’t much of a need to re-commit to Hakanpää.

AHL/depth UFA’s likely to depart

The Leafs have three Marlie UFAs in their forward group, in Alex Nylander, Alex Steeves, and Nick Abruzzese, the latter two of whom are Group 6 UFAs. Steeves and Abruzzese have gotten the most attention out of the three, and will likely want to seek grander opportunities elsewhere. Their departure could create extra opportunities for Nylander, who played NHL games this past season, which could entice him to stay. The fact that his brother Willy is signed with the franchise long-term is an extra motivator.

On defence, both Nicolas Mattinen and Dakota Mermis are pending UFAs. It would be especially interesting to see Mermis stay around, but realistically, this may not happen. The Leafs still have the likes of Matt Benning and Marshall Rifai with NHL experience, and if they really wanted to, the Leafs have multiple 23- and 24-year-old defencemen they could give a look to.

Goaltender Matt Murray is also a UFA, but it’s not a guarantee he returns either. With Dennis Hildeby an RFA destined to be re-signed and likely given the reins to the Marlies’ starter’s net, it’s entirely likely Murray seeks a new opportunity, even if it means the Leafs find a new depth goalie option to further mentor Hildeby.

This article first appeared on 6IX ON ICE and was syndicated with permission.

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