Projecting Devils Defender’s Extension

The Recent Comparables

Three recent signings involving defensemen give a hint of what Hughes could land. The Carolina Hurricanes acquired K’Andre Miller and signed him to an eight-year deal that pays him $7.5 million annually. The Montreal Canadiens acquired Noah Dobson and also extended him for eight years, but with a $9.5 million salary. Lastly, the Washington Capitals signed Martin Fehevary to a seven-year extension worth $42 million total, carrying an average annual value of $6 million.

This is the range that Hughes could sign for with his next deal, but it also makes it clear how valuable the still improving defender is. Over the past two seasons, Hughes has registered 47 points in 82 games and 44 points in 71 contests last year. Those 91 points are 34 more than the 57 points Miller posted in that span and just 18 points behind Dobson’s production. Dobson also recorded 70 of those points in one season, but he’s been a 40 to 50-point defender in all other seasons of his career. Fehevary is not a point-collecting defenseman and is rather a two-way minutes-eater, so the point comparison isn’t the fairest way to evaluate. Still, Feheavary’s 41 points over the last two years are considerably shy of Hughes’ production.

Hughes is also younger than all three of these important defensemen. Each member of the recently extended trio is 25. Hughes is 21, set to turn 22 on September 9th. Those three additional years are worth significant value. Not only should he be paid like a top, two-way defenseman, he has to be compensated for the fact that he’s still improving and his value in the league is still apexing.

The Contract Prediction

There are two distinct routes for this deal to go down. The first is the long-term extension, where the Devils get the maximum amount of time commitment from Hughes, but it will cost them financially. If Hughes signs an eight-year extension, there’s no way it’s for an average annual salary below $8.5 million. If the Devils do convince him to go all-in on a deal, it would likely look somewhere in the range of eight-years, $72 to $80 million in total. That would land him an average salary of at least $9 million going forward.

If it’s a short-term deal, less than four seasons, the Devils could land a slight discount. It won’t be much, however, as the fact remains that Hughes is the 21st highest-scoring defender since the 2023-2024 NHL season. Just three of the top-20 make less than $6 million per season, and one of those players, Mike Matheson, signed his current contract in October of 2017.

That means there’s no chance the Devils can sign Hughes for a dollar less than $6 million per season, and that’s probably not enough. To keep all options on the table, the Devils could potentially work out a three-year contract worth $19.5 million, which would pay him $6.5 million per season over the length of the deal.

With the rest of the NHL valuing defenseman at a rising rate over the past few years, Hughes is in line for a substantial raise and the Devils know it. They are going to have to pony up eventually for their rising number one defenseman.