Projecting Erik Karlsson’s Future With The Penguins

Taylor Haase of DK Pittsburgh Sports wrote last week about the uncertainty surrounding Pittsburgh Penguins superstar defenseman Erik Karlsson. The three-time Norris Trophy winner is in the final year of his eight-year, $92MM contract and is coming off his best season in Pittsburgh, having tallied 66 points in 75 games last year. Karlsson was the Penguins’ best player last season and carried the team through a large stretch post-Olympics, when the team was without the services of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. At this stage, no contract talks have taken place between Karlsson and the team, and it appears from the outside looking in that everyone involved acknowledges the precarious position the team is in with its blend of older and younger players, and how this season could shape the team’s future. So how does Karlsson fit into that puzzle?

For his part, Karlsson has repeatedly said he is quite comfortable in Pittsburgh and enjoys playing there. Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas has expressed interest in keeping Karlsson in Pittsburgh beyond this season. Assistant GM Jason Spezza told Haase that the team has explained the situation to Karlsson and is comfortable letting it develop.

So how could things actually develop this year? One way this could play out is that the Penguins compete for a playoff spot and opt to keep the 36-year-old Karlsson for the year. That would make sense, given that he is their top defenseman and the Penguins’ blue line is already a mess (see our piece from last week on that). It wouldn’t be the easiest sell to fans but keeping a top player while chasing a playoff spot could make sense. That would push Karlsson into free agency next summer, when Pittsburgh could let him walk for nothing or extend him into 2027-28 and beyond.

That leads to the second way things could play out. Karlsson extends beyond this season and likely finishes his career with the Penguins. A few years ago, you would’ve been laughed out of the building for suggesting Karlsson could get an AAV close to his current one ($11.5MM), but if he plays this season the way he did last year, that could happen. AFP Analytics has him pegged for a three-year extension worth $6.6MM per year, but if Karlsson shows he’s a force again, he will get a bigger number than that. Could it be in Pittsburgh? That absolutely could happen if Karlsson is still playing well and the team is competing for the playoffs. The Penguins would need to be careful not to go too high and too long on the deal, but Pittsburgh has the cap space and really has no heir apparent for when Karlsson ultimately departs the team.

Next, we have what is probably the most obvious and likely way this plays out: the Penguins moving Karlsson at the NHL Trade Deadline. This could be what Dubas and company are waiting for, similar to how they let the Jake Guentzel trade play out in 2024. If the Penguins aren’t in a playoff hunt come February, they could approach Karlsson to make a move and ship him out for what would likely be future assets. Karlsson’s cap hit this season ($10MM) could be a problem, but the Penguins could retain a good portion of it and offer a top-pairing defenseman as a rental. And if Karlsson plays at a high level, the return could be massive, even as he approaches 37. Given how the Penguins have been accumulating future assets, it wouldn’t be shocking to see this happen in early 2027.

Lastly, the final way this could play out is that Pittsburgh sputters out of the gate and opts to move Karlsson sooner rather than later before the end of 2026. For Pittsburgh, it would mitigate the risk of Karlsson potentially getting hurt and also allow them to integrate some of their younger pieces into the lineup sooner rather than later. This option might be one of the safer ones for the Penguins if things go sideways this season, as it would give them time to navigate Karlsson’s no-movement clause, find him a situation he is comfortable with, and scoop up future assets.

Ultimately, Pittsburgh might not even have to choose, depending on Karlsson’s own feelings. If he decides he wants to go, he will go; if he decides to stay, he will ink a contract to remain in Pittsburgh. From the Penguins’ perspective, they will need to respond to Karlsson’s wishes, because that’s what his no-movement clause has bought him. The power to control where he plays.

There is still an entire season to be played, but Karlsson’s situation in Pittsburgh will be one of the most fascinating stories to watch this season, as he could become the most interesting trade chip. Pittsburgh has an aging superstar, one of the best players in recent memory, who is still playing at a high level, but he plays on a team that could make the playoffs again or finish as low as 12th in the Eastern Conference. This season will be revealing for Karlsson’s future and the Penguins’.