Ryan Donato: To Trade, Or Not To Trade? That Is The Question

In our trade deadline primer, I stated that I'm on team "Extend Donato,"... but is that the best move for the team? Does trading Donato to add more draft capital make sense? Does it even matter?

The Roster

Here's who's signed on for next season. I'm assuming that Colton Dach starts the season with the Blackhawks. Prospects who sign with the Blackhawks this spring (i.e., your "Oliver Moore"s) are most likely spending time in Rockford. That leaves two extra forwards and a couple of holes in the top six.

Frank Nazar will probably get some time as the second-line center, although I think he will end up on Bedard's wing. Teuvo Teravainen can move around. But that leaves a hole that's "star-sized," a hole that can fit a buddy for Connor Bedard. We'll call this mystery-free agent "Rikko Mantanen."

So far, including this "Rikko" guy, we have 11 forwards. There's room for one more regular and two more extras. Davidson will want room to call up players who are in Rockford and ultimately keep them there for a while.

There's room for Donato, who can play up and down the lineup. So long as Donato is okay with extending for a year or two, it works. But will it work for him?

Ryan Donato's Price

A long-term deal makes sense for Donato. The Hawks are his fifth team, and he has a family. Those things do factor into players' decisions. If Donato wants term, I don't think the Blackhawks will give that to him.

The two highest-paid forwards on the team are Teravainen and Tyler Bertuzzi ($5.4 million and $5.5 million, respectively). Nick Foligno and Jason Dickinson make $4.5 million and $4.25 million, respectively. Donato currently makes $2 million and has a strong argument that he's been better than all of those players. 

Ryan Donato has played excellent hockey this season: 37 points and 15% of his shots turn into goals. His 15 SH% will regress to his career average of 10%. Still, he's scoring goals, but that's not because he's been playing with Bedard. Below is a chart with Donato's stats with and without Bedard.

Taking all of this into consideration, Donato can make an argument for somewhere around $5 million. That number won't be an issue with how much the cap is increasing. 

A playoff team would love to have a player like Donato on board; why not play for a team with a chance of winning the Stanley Cup? That's an easy fit with a current cap hit at $2 million. 

Davidson's longest contract is Bertuzzi, which is four years. This is Donato's last chance to sign a long-term deal at this stage in his career. If Davidson signs Donato for anywhere north of three years, the Blackhawks will be looking to push for the playoffs by then (2029-ish), and Donato will be 33. 

The Verdict

Keeping Donato is a short-term solution. He's a good player that can help this team escape the basement of the league next season. A player who has a very positive impact on the young guys. I'm more than happy to keep him for a year or two, but I don't think that's what Donato wants. 

If the Hawks trade him, Davidson won't be in the wrong to stockpile more draft picks, even if it's only a third-rounder. But then it sounds like making a trade for the sake of making a trade. A second-round pick sounds better, but do the Hawks get that?

What's best for the Blackhawks may not be best for Donato, and that's keeping him around for 1-2 years.