Sunday marks the NHL’s only scheduled salary arbitration case this summer, and it involves the Toronto Maple Leafs and winger Nick Robertson. The fact that no other team reached this point with a restricted free agent speaks tons—not only about the unique circumstances, but also the fragile relationship between Robertson and the organization. According to Elliotte Friedman, the two sides are significantly apart: Robertson is asking for a one-year deal worth $2.25 million, while the team is offering just $1.2 million. The ruling, expected shortly after the hearing, will settle the dollar figure. What it won’t resolve is the underlying tension.
Robertson’s journey with the Maple Leafs has never been smooth. Drafted in the second round in 2019, he was seen as a steal. Especially because the team lacked a first-round pick that year. But persistent injuries and limited opportunities have derailed what once looked like a rising star.
Despite putting up 29 goals over the last two seasons and proving effective at even strength, Robertson has never fully earned the coaching staff’s trust. He’s been scratched in key games and miscast in checking-line roles that don’t suit his skillset. Perhaps most telling: just last summer, he requested a trade—only to walk it back when no deal emerged.
For any player, arbitration can be an emotionally draining process. To have your value debated in front of a neutral party, with your employer listing every flaw they see in your game, can leave a lasting scar. And when that employer is the Maple Leafs—a team known for relentless scrutiny and internal pressure—the experience can become even more fraught.
This is especially true for a player like Robertson, who has never felt fully supported by the organization and has reason to feel his growth has been stunted by role misalignment rather than lack of talent.
There’s a path forward. With Mitch Marner gone and a top-six spot potentially available, the 2025-2026 season could be Robertson’s long-awaited chance. But that depends on whether either side still has the will to invest in the other.
The Maple Leafs would love to keep a cost-effective scoring winger under $1.5 million. That said, they risk burning a bridge that may already be smoldering. Sunday’s arbitration ruling will deliver a number. It will also deliver a verdict about whether there’s any long-term future left between Robertson and the team.
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