The Athletic’s ‘Big Question’ for Penguins Has Nothing to Do with Sidney Crosby

As The Athletic's Josh Yohe reported in early July, both were happy to remain with the Penguins past last year's trade deadline.

“Rust and Rakell have made it clear they have no interest in leaving Pittsburgh,” Yohe wrote. “Rakell was relieved last season when he remained with the Penguins after the deadline passed.”

Karlsson, meanwhile, also remained productive enough (53 points in 82 games) to draw interest despite defensive flaws and his huge contract, which carries an $11.5 million cap hit.

For now, all three remain with Pittsburgh, as general manager Kyle Dubas held firm on asking prices during the past few months, thus keeping him in tow.

“The big question: How does the presence of Karlsson, Rust and Rakell affect Pittsburgh’s chances of a high pick?” The Athletic wrote. The outlet projected Pittsburgh to earn 74 points this season, assuming the trio stays until at least the deadline. Had they been moved over the summer, the Penguins’ odds of landing the first overall pick would have jumped from 13 percent to 44 percent, The Athletic's analysts claim.

According to The Athletic, Karlsson, Rakell and Rust project as the Penguins’ second-, third- and fourth-most valuable skaters. That comes with the positive of boosting the team's chances of winning games, but also with the downside of reducing the Penguins' lottery odds at landing the 2026 No. 1 overall pick and consensus-best prospect Gavin McKenna.

“Drafting McKenna, for Dubas, would represent the quickest path back to his prime objectives — regaining playoff-race relevance, setting the franchise on a course for true contention and keeping Crosby happy,” The Athletic noted. “Those are not necessarily in order, either.”

The projection also assumed at least one of the three aforementioned veterans could be moved in-season, improving draft positioning.

“The sooner the Penguins move on, the better their chances of landing McKenna become,” The Athletic wrote. “The best case: 62 points. The Penguins move Karlsson and Rakell early for big returns, creating a team that immediately sinks like a stone.

“The worst case: 87 points. Dubas takes too long to move his assets and only ends up trading one of Karlsson, Rakell and Rust. It’s not enough to finish in the bottom 10 as a still-elite Crosby drags an otherwise terrible team to the mushy middle and questions about his future in Pittsburgh intensify.”