The future of Jake Walman and Vasily Podkolzin with the Edmonton Oilers

For good reason, a potential Connor McDavid extension is dominating conversations around the Edmonton Oilers future. Outside of conspiracy boards analyzing quotes and presuming intent, this will be the case until McDavid signs his next deal, with the Oilers or otherwise. This is central to the very basis of the Oilers as a team, and to an extent should be the top priority for next season’s team salary structure.

While the Oilers cannot control everything, McDavid is set to earn his unrestricted free agent status. He is well within his right to leave town for any number of reasons. What the Oilers can do is set the team up for the foreseeable future, building a strong enough team that is worthy of their superstar talent. Regardless of term, McDavid seems likely to replicate the cap value of his last deal. He will sign for the most AAV of any player, and to an extent the social and professional pressures of the NHLPA might demand that.

Might McDavid be waiting for other players to raise the bar before signing a deal? With rumours that the Minnesota Wild might make Kirill Kaprizov the highest paid player, there might be a game of chicken that this responsibility steers McDavid into. Prices are always going up, and a star player signing early might be leaving money on the table. Perhaps the urgency of McDavid being unsigned is a carrot to dangle, squeezing every bit of intensity as the captain lets everyone know that the future is never promised.

Either way, team quality and stability might play a bigger role and any dollar beyond those parameters. As such, the Oilers have the opportunity to extend some players early, hoping to grab a slight discount on players who will keep this roster strong the next handful of seasons. With a stronger team structure ensured the Oilers will have a better shot at persuading McDavid.

The main targets for such treatment are Jake Walman and Vasily Podkolzin. Both players are entering their second season with the team, and are looking to improve on impressive debuts.

Let’s take a closer look at what each brings to the table and what a contract might look like for the Oilers.

Jake Walman

Acquired midway through last season, Jake Walman will be able to truly settle into this blueline. This is the best team that Walman has ever been on, and a great chance for him to truly assert himself as a top-four defenceman. His fancy stats and production have always shown promise, but playing a regular penalty killing role for the Oilers, let alone on his weak side, showed that he is versatile enough to be in another AAV bracket.

Still, it seems clear that the league has had some hesitation towards Walman. Shockingly he was traded from the Detroit Red Wings alongside a second-round pick for the chance to get out of his current $3.4M cap hit. The San Jose Sharks did well to parlay that into another first-round pick from the Oilers.

Somehow his work with the Sharks was enough to change his value, and likely his work with the Oilers would continue that trend. If the Oilers were to get ahead of another strong season they might save some cap space. At this point it would be difficult to suggest anything under $5M, but a strong year on the Oilers might vault him into a $7M range.

One positive for the Oilers is that Walman will not be given easy points to pad his totals. Evan Bouchard is foundational on the top power play unit at this point, and will likely remain a fixture for game situations that call for all-out offence. Walman will have the chance to play with some good players as well, but this ensures the Oilers will not have to pay extra for power play points.

It is very possible that the Oilers will have to choose between Brett Kulak and Jake Walman, and both will come at a different price. Throw in the fact that Mattis Ekholm is up for a new deal, along with both NHL goalies, as well as McDavid, and some clarity would do a lot of good. It would be a risk to extend him, though four or five years at $6M seems good for the Oilers, tying up space for next season comes at a price of its own.

Vasily Podkolzin

While his contract is likely smaller than Walman’s, the equation might be different for Podkolzin. In particular, Podkolzin will have a chance to step into a new role. While expected to ride shotgun alongside Leon Draisaitl at even strength, Podkolzin might have a shot at more power play time in the coming season. This could lead to an inflated value next summer, as Podkolzin would be poised for a career season.

Simply put, if Podkolzin can author a 20-goal, 40-point season he will command a different level of contract. With Zach Hyman injured and Corey Perry gone the Oilers might have a glaring opening on the top power play. While it might be temporary, the net front spot on power play two is up for grabs outright. Podkolzin is poised to battle with Trent Frederic for the spot.

Ultimately it would be nice to be forced into conceding a much bigger contract because Podkolzin truly asserts himself. He has yet to do so, but if he starts to secure a power play role the Oilers might look to get ahead of the production. At the very least he has delivered to this point, and should have some strong seasons ahead.

In the bigger picture it is far more important that Podkolzin builds off of some strong moments last season. If his connection with Draisaitl can grow he will be an extremely valuable piece to the core. His potential breakout would help sway McDavid more than a slightly better deal could. Still, every dollar counts, and difficult decisions will have to be made.

How should Edmonton proceed

In all, the strategy of getting ahead of things might be nicer in theory than in practice. The truth is that the McDavid contract negotiations take precedence over everything else. The Oilers should exercise enough flexibility to not interfere with those efforts. One would assume that is the case. By that logic any extensions or trades altering next season’s cap might come as a reassurance that there is some level of clarity on the team’s end.

One might argue that all of Walman, Podkolzin, Stuart Skinner, and Brett Kulak are worth more than their current deals. Finding equivalent players at better prices is not easy. The scene is set in dramatic fashion, and it will be anything but monotonous as the Oilers get set to avenge a Stanley Cup Final loss for the second season in a row. As McDavid’s future remains shrouded in uncertainties, the here and now becomes ever more pressing.

The alignment presents an opportunity. A chance to finally win that missing stage. A chance to savour greatness at least one last time, the thrill of the future in the balance. There is also a chance for the team to buy in.

The glory of victory has made taking less more palatable for many of the Florida Panthers, while the Oilers have seen some exodus. In fairness the change of general managers might be more at play here, as Stan Bowman continues to shuffle around the core. With some key players like Mattias Ekholm, Walman, Podkolzin, Skinner, and Kulak up for new contracts, might we see some team friendly deals? Chicken meet egg on whether McDavid’s contract will be the first domino.

What is certain is that McDavid seems willing to put his full focus on this season, living without tomorrow, or in this case next season. We should expect to see McDavid at his best, a scary thought for the rest of the league.