The Maple Leafs’ Core Four, their playoff failures, and the future

Every year, the Toronto Maple Leafs find new ways to disappoint the fans with their playoff failure. From clawing back from a 3–1 series deficit against the Boston Bruins in 2018, only to blow the one-goal lead in the third period to lose Game 7. From the 3–1 series shambolic choke against the Montreal Canadiens in 2021, to being utterly dismantled by the Florida Panthers in 2023 after making the second round for the first time in two decades. There’s no shortage of painful playoff failures for Maple Leafs fans.

I will save us the pain of reliving all the other chances the Maple Leafs could have closed out a series to advance, but blew it. I won’t discuss all the third-period leads the Maple Leafs had where they could have won crucial playoff games, and blew it. Lastly, I won’t discuss every humiliating series defeat where we said: “Blow it up, this core needs to change,” and Maple Leafs’ management had the gall to “run it back.”

Let’s look at the recent season and playoff failure, key moments when the Maple Leafs could’ve made changes in the last nine years, and the mess the Maple Leafs are now in moving forward.

Different team, who is this?

There is no doubt that the Maple Leafs played a different brand of hockey this regular season. The Maple Leafs played a style of hockey that was supposed to translate better in the playoffs than previous iterations. They played a dump-and-chase game with relentless forechecking and aggressive shot blocking and positioning.

The Maple Leafs even pushed through in March/April. Historically, their power play and play in general would fall off a cliff. This time of the year, teams prepare for the playoffs by playing more intense hockey. Instead, the Maple Leafs went 9–1 to end the season. In doing so, the Maple Leafs clinched the Atlantic Division with a 4–0 win against the Buffalo Sabres.

But this was more than a moral victory. The Maple Leafs haven’t won a division title in 25 years since the 1999–00 season. Mitch Marner joined the 100-point club for the first time in his career, and Auston Matthews scored his 400th career goal as a Maple Leaf. Quite the ending to a fantastic season.

The Maple Leafs also revamped their defence corps by adding Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Chris Tanev in the offseason and by adding Brandon Carlo at the trade deadline. There was finally a back-end that was playoff-ready, addressing an issue of years past. The Maple Leafs also received otherworldly goaltending from Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll. Stolarz led the NHL in SV% with a .926 and was third in GAA with 2.14 during the regular season. Treliving addressed the goaltending issue.

Clearly, this was the best team on paper and on ice that we have seen in the Auston Matthews era. And it would continue into the first round of the playoffs.

The 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs: Rising

The Maple Leafs faced off against the Ottawa Senators as a reward for winning the Atlantic Division. From Game 1, the Maple Leafs dominated the Senators, winning 6–2. The Maple Leafs took a commanding 3–0 series lead. Then the Senators won Game four in overtime, avoiding elimination on home ice.

While the Maple Leafs did not play their best game, they still took the Senators to overtime. Game 5, on the other hand, was a bad performance, losing 4–0. Naturally, given the Maple Leafs’ playoff history in the Matthews era, doubt started to creep in. However, the Maple Leafs won 4–2 in Game 6 and advanced to the second round to face the Panthers.

The Maple Leafs finally closed out a series and didn’t blow a series lead. What a weird feeling for Maple Leafs fans. What’s an even weirder feeling was taking both Games one and two in Toronto to take the 2–0 series lead in the second round. This team looked different and looked poised to run straight through the Panthers. Once again, the Maple Leafs filled Leafs Nation’s hearts with hope.

The Maple Leafs were one shot away from taking a 3–0 series lead against the Panthers, but lost 5–4 in overtime in a hard-fought game. And this was the turning point in the series.

Hello darkness, my old friend

Since the defeat in Game 3, the Maple Leafs seemingly forgot everything Craig Berube and the coaching staff drilled into their heads throughout the regular season, the first round of the playoffs, and the first three games of the second round. Once again, the Panthers dismantled the Maple Leafs, with the Maple Leafs losing 6–1 in Game 7.

We all saw the games. The 2–0 loss, followed by an even more embarrassing 6–1 defeat in Game 5 on home ice. The Game 5 loss is what I consider the legacy game for this group of players. The Maple Leafs could have taken a 3–2 series lead and had two chances to close out the series, but instead left Joseph Woll out to dry. The highest-paid player in the NHL, Auston Matthews, has scored one goal in the second round of his career.

But it’s not the fact that they lost, but rather it’s how they lost that is the problem. It’s the same thing we have seen over and over again over the last nine years. The “Core Four”, in particular Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, are unable to elevate their game in key playoff moments. We can tell from their post-game interviews over the last nine years that they don’t hate to lose more than they love to win.

The legacy of the Auston Matthews era is on track to be one of the worst eras in franchise history. It’s the most skilled team in franchise history, and yet it will be remembered as the team that was perennial playoff chokers. The $45M offence could only get the team to the second round twice.

But it begs the question: how on earth did we get here?

Tidally locked to the Core Four

The answer is obvious. After nine years, the Core Four of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander did not work. The Maple Leafs had an ample amount of time to move off of one or two of the Core Four players. Most people think the 2020–21 colossal failure against the Montreal Canadiens was the time to do it. Instead, the Maple Leafs elected to tinker with the bottom-six, defence corps, and goaltending. This was after five straight first-round exits with the same core.

Then, after the poor effort in the second round against the Panthers in the 2022–23 playoffs, then General Manager Kyle Dubas hinted that it was time to trade one of the core players and make serious changes. The two candidates were William Nylander and Mitch Marner. The former had a modified no-trade clause, while the latter had a no-movement clause that both kicked in later that summer. 

It was the perfect opportunity to make serious changes. After seven years, surely there was enough evidence to suggest that this core group of players, while individually skilled and talented, didn’t work. Unfortunately, we will never know what would’ve happened in that offseason because Dubas’ contract was not extended, and Brad Treliving was brought in. Allegedly, Shanahan called the Core Four, and there was the understanding that they wouldn’t be moved.

The next year, Treliving extended Nylander to the largest contract in franchise history. At this point, all the superstars had no-movement clauses. But things would be different, right? After erasing another 3–1 series deficit against the Boston Bruins, the Maple Leafs blew a 1–0 lead in the third period and lost in overtime. The Maple Leafs faced another first-round defeat, the seventh in the last eight years at the time.

This year, because the core all had no-movement clauses, Treliving rebuilt the defence and added some key depth in the bottom-six. And guess what happened? The Panthers eliminated the Maple Leafs in the second round by the Panthers. The biggest problems have always been related to the Core Four. They can’t score at crucial moments in the playoffs and are unable to turn it on like Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, or Mikko Rantanen.

The Maple Leafs have been locked to the Core Four, just like the Earth is tidally locked to the Moon. Like the Moon, we only see the same side–the Core Four can’t get it done in the playoffs. What’s even worse is that, unlike the Moon, we could have broken this tidal lock numerous times by making changes, but failed to do so because they’re so pretty to look at during the regular season.

Where do the Maple Leafs go from here?

The Maple Leafs have cycled through three general managers, three coaches, and have swapped the bottom-six players, virtually the whole defence corps, and goaltenders several times over the last decade. They have committed to an underachieving core in the playoffs, and have two first-round victories to show for it. Not even a sniff of a Stanley Cup final appearance.

John Tavares and Mitch Marner are free agents, with Marner likely not returning to the Maple Leafs. As a result, the Maple Leafs will receive no assets in return for losing these players. Still, a culture change is needed. But at this late stage, if you need a culture change, you may as well start a full rebuild.

Obtaining value in trades often means giving up value in return. Unfortunately, the Maple Leafs don’t have a first-round draft pick until 2028. Furthermore, the prospect cupboards are bare, with Easton Cowan and possibly Ben Danford being the remaining prospects that have value.

Lastly, there’s Free Agency. Looking ahead at possible free agents, there may be a few players who can change the complexity of this team. However, there are no playoff performers like Mikko Rantanen available.

The Maple Leafs have few assets, glaring holes with pending free agents, and a culture that is clearly not suitable for playoff hockey. The Maple Leafs are in the worst-case scenario. Once again, we are left praying to the hockey gods, hoping that Matthews isn’t injured before or during the playoffs, and some new supporting cast can make the $13.25M captain realize his playoff potential.