What Is the Chicago Blackhawks’ Ceiling in 2026-27?

The Chicago Blackhawks are heading into the season without realistic playoff aspirations again. The Blackhawks have missed the playoffs nine of the last 10 seasons, so if everything goes well, could they clinch a berth?

One of my main focuses this offseason has been to remain as realistic as possible with my expectations for the roster. They have a lot of upside, which is a great sign for the future and gives reason for optimism, but the young players need time to adjust to the NHL, which won’t happen immediately. So what is a fair ceiling for Chicago?

2026-27 Expectations

I want to be transparent because I’ve said Chicago will be a bottom-five team yet again after the Connor Bedard injury. I think that is a fair expectation, considering they will be missing their first-line center for about a month, and their biggest offseason acquisition, Bowen Byram, is about to experience his first season as a number-one defenseman.

On top of that, some of the most important players on the roster are either just beginning their NHL careers or are still in the early stages. With so many players trying to adjust to either new workloads or simply playing in the NHL, the team is set up for a season without too many wins.

What is the Ceiling?

The Blackhawks’ ceiling is probably to just miss the playoffs and play meaningful hockey until the final week of the season. They have tons of talent on the roster, but as I’ve said, the young talent still needs time to adjust to the NHL.

Last season, the final wild-card spot in the Western Conference was decided among teams that probably weren’t playoff calibre, which led to the LA Kings clinching a berth with just 90 points. The Blackhawks were 18 points off the final playoff spot, which means, theoretically, they need a 20-point jump to achieve the ceiling I’ve set.

In context, the Blackhawks haven’t had that big a season-over-season jump since the 1981-82 season to the 1982-83 season when the team went from 72 points to 104 points.

The Pathway to Reaching the Ceiling

If the Blackhawks want to reach that ceiling, the most important part of the season will be to survive the gap without Bedard. If reports that he will be out until November are accurate, the first month of the season could be a real struggle.

Chicago opens the campaign against the Vegas Golden Knights, then faces nine playoff teams from last season in the first month (including Vegas). This leaves them with just four games against non-playoff teams in the opening month, including a game against the Florida Panthers. The positives are that the Blackhawks have a six-game home stand, and they hit the road for more than two games at a time.

If they can hover around a .500 winning percentage within that first month, they can set themselves up for a shot at being in the race as the season goes on. I understand it’s easy to say when they’re missing their best player and were a lottery team last season, but another big part of reaching their ceiling has to be goaltender Spencer Knight.

I wrote an article earlier in the offseason about the expectations for Knight, following his breakout season. To keep it short, I expect some of his numbers to come down but still be an elite goalie in the NHL. Knight picking up where he left off last season should give the Blackhawks a chance to stay in games during the opening month while key young players gain their footing.