Why John Gibson Deserves Vezina Recognition

Is Gibson top of the league, no. He’s high up there though. Now, a personal gripe with this stat is that it doesn’t take into account empty net goals. Detroit is one of the best teams to score into the empty net this season, and if you know anything about how xG works, it makes steals really hard to get. For example, if it weren’t for the Raymond empty netter, Gibson would’ve had another one.

Regardless, Gibson has put together a great body of work in terms of steals. However, in terms of changing a game, there is more than just steals. Preventable losses (PL) are losses where the negative GSAx was more than the margin of error in a loss. So the exact opposite of a steal. Let’s flip this around to look at how those same goalie performed in terms of games where they lost it for their team.

Amongst these same goalies, Gibson has lost fewer games for Detroit. A stat that is really ironic, given it felt like he had above 10 straight preventable losses in Detroit, but hey, he turned it around. And finally, before there were steals, there were shutouts. Despite them becoming a little less relevant nowadays due to the rise of nerd stats (I say that lovingly,) they’re still cool to see.

So yes, Sorokin looks better than Gibson in all these metrics, my counterpoint is hush. Paired with all of this, of course, is the fact that since December 1st, of all goalies with at least 800 minutes played, Gibson leads in save percentage, goals above average, goals saved above expected, and he did all that with the most expected goals against. I again say hush.

What Goes into Voting:

There’s a lot to consider when it comes to voting for any award, but largely, the Vézina is just the MVP of goaltenders. So, I think the criteria is the same as that. All of these are largely opinionated, so I’ll be stating Gibson’s case for these. This isn’t me saying there aren’t other goalies with equally good cases, I’m just giving his.

What is the Team Without This Player?

Well, let’s start internally. Cam Talbot has lost 9 out of his last 11 starts, has three preventable losses, and a -2.87 GSAx, and for a team that allowed some of the most expected goals over the last two months, it doesn’t inspire confidence.

But beyond that, Gibson has given Detroit great play in an area they have been weak in for years. Detroit has had major struggles in net for years, and Gibson is the first to succeed in the crease. It’s not like the defence in front of him has been pretty either. In fact, there is a serious case of the Vezina leaders; he has the worst defensive core in front of him. Especially given the Edvinsson injury, Detroit’s defensive play is tied to when Mo Seider is on the ice. For the other 33 minutes of the game, Detroit looks awful, and Gibson has to bail them out.

Narratives:

Look, call it stupid, but narrative does matter to voting in awards. Detroit has been pretty ho-hum offensively this year, and obviously, their defensive core isn’t great. So the reason they have gotten to where they are in the standings largely comes down to goaltending, at least for the last two months.

Not to mention Detroit being back in the playoff picture after a nearly decade-long drought, compared to teams with recent success, such as the Islanders, Capitals, and Lightning, also bodes well for Gibson as well. Looking at the teams to make a big leap this year, Detroit is amongst the best, and the only big change they made this offseason was bringing in John Gibson.

The turnaround is also great, even if his numbers don’t dazzle at times, blame it on early-season play. He’s the only goalie since the stat has been tracked to be both bottom 15 and top 15 in goals saved above expected in the same season, that’s not nothing.

Love it or hate it, the storyline matters, and if Gibson can keep up some great play, the storylines might just keep stacking his way to a Vézina.

Voter Fatigue:

Look, I know this is also kind of a narrative thing, but voters like to have some parity in their picks from previous seasons. Sorokin and Vasilevskiy have appeared on the ballot so many times in recent years that it’s possible they give Gibson some extra leeway because he hasn’t been in the debate for a while.

His 2010’s were also really strong, and voters saw how good he was behind a bad Anaheim Ducks team; maybe he grabs some nostalgia votes in there, too.

Wrap Up:

I’m not saying he’s going to win. As a matter of fact, looking at the numbers, I actually think Sorokin deserved it a lot more than I thought he did going in. However, I think that if there is a Red Wing who will grab some voter attention this season, it might just be John Gibson.

More to Read:

John Gibson Thrives on High-Danger Shots: A Breakdown

The Blame Game: John Gibson

• The Blame Game: John Gibson
• John Gibson Thrives on High-Danger Shots: A Breakdown
• NHL Game Recap: Gibson Blanks Canadiens; Red Wings Alone in First in Atlantic Division 
• Red Wings Improve to 3-0-1 on Road-Trip after Holding off Flames
• Red Wings Christmas Wishlist: December Hopes & Playoff Implications