Why Nick Robertson deserves a top-six spot on the Toronto Maple Leafs

There are two spots in the Toronto Maple Leafs’ top-six that aren’t filled: A winger beside Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies, and a winger beside John Tavares and William Nylander. The early predictions for said spots are Max Domi/Matias Maccelli and Bobby McMann. But the player who really deserves a shot is Nick Robertson.

This is absolutely a make-or-break year for Robertson, and by no means am I saying he will run away with it. But of all the Leafs wingers battling for time, he has the highest ceiling. That’s exactly what the Leafs need.

Robertson is one of the most polarizing players in recent Leafs history, and rightfully so. Sometimes he looks like a future 30-goal scorer, and sometimes he looks like an AHLer. But he took a step last season and deserves a legitimate shot to finally prove himself. Let’s discuss.

Robertson’s Leaf history

Somehow, this will be Robertson’s seventh season playing NHL games. He originally came up for four games in 2019–20, and bounced between the Leafs and Marlies until earning a full-time roster spot in the NHL two seasons ago.

Since then, Robertson has played in 125 games, scoring 29 goals and 49 points.

His strengths and weaknesses are obvious. Robertson can shoot and score, and his offensive instincts are solid. He can be trigger-happy with his shot, but it’s for good reason. He has a lethal release and can beat goalies from almost anywhere.

On the defensive end, he’s a work in progress. He’s too small to bully people, but tries to nonetheless. He needs to improve his stick work and really play to his strengths. He plays like he’s 6’5, but that shouldn’t be his game. The speed and motor are good enough to be at least average in his own zone, but he hasn’t learned to be that guy yet.

Although 29 goals in 125 games doesn’t seem elite, his icetime has been extremely limited, and his rate stats are actually really promising. At 5v5, he’s scored 1.33 and 1.05 goals per 60 minutes in the last two years. For reference, Nylander has been at 1.13 and 1.17.

Robertson has won his minutes at 5v5 for two straight seasons playing with less-than-ideal teammates. He’s never earned much favour with Sheldon Keefe or Craig Berube, but has done enough to at least get a shot at playing in the top-six.

A team in need of scoring

For the last however many years, the Leafs’ postseason issue has been scoring. No matter how good the top-six looks during the regular season, once the playoffs start, they crumble. 

Now, Robertson has also no-showed in the playoffs so far in his young career. But he’s never played with a star, either, and his skillset only makes sense playing with one.

Other than Domi, who has shown up big time in the playoffs in blue and white, the other options—Maccelli and McMann—are either unproven or terrible in the playoffs. McMann was dreadful last season and probably played his way out of a second-line opportunity.

If Robertson’s rate stats keep up or improve playing beside Matthews or Nylander, he should absolutely be beside them in the playoffs. No longer does Matthews need to anchor a defensive line; that’s Nic Roy and Dakota Joshua’s job now. 

With an actual third line and a good fourth line as well, the Leafs can afford to put a Robertson-type at the top of the lineup. Their biggest problem is scoring, not getting scored on.

Matthews or Nylander?

If Robertson is going to play in the top-six, he’s either going to be with Matthews and Knies or Tavares and Nylander.

He’s actually played with Willy and Tavares before, but it didn’t work too well. That was quite a long time ago, though, and his game has definitely matured since then.

Either way, I think it makes a lot more sense for Robertson to play with Matthews and Knies. Both are defensively responsible and make a living off stealing pucks. Neither are Robertson’s strong suits. He would be able to rely on the two big guys to win pucks while he finds room to set up.

A Nylander–Tavares–Robertson line would be disgusting defensively, especially as Tavares’ footspeed continues to decline. If they got stuck in their own end, their shifts would last minutes. None have the defensive instincts or strength to shut down cycles, and even though Tavares and Robertson try, they just aren’t great in their own zones.

They would be a lot of fun to watch on the rush and in the offensive zone, but the defensive downside is too significant. If the seasons started today, I’d play Robertson with Matthews and Knies.