Why the Oilers should take Anaheim’s strong start seriously

It’s not just luck that’s explaining Anaheim’s early success; they’ve taken a legitimate step forward. They may not look like contenders just yet under the hood, but new head coach Joel Quenneville has the Ducks playing a completely different style this season, and it’s improved their results across the board.

A breath of fresh air in Anaheim

The past couple of seasons have been frustrating for the Ducks. During Greg Cronin’s two-year tenure as head coach, Anaheim finished below 60 points in the standings each season, nowhere near contention for a playoff spot. What was more alarming, however, was the stagnation of some of their young stars. Key young pieces like Trevor Zegras, Olen Zellweger, and Mason McTavish failed to take a meaningful step forward during Cronin’s tenure, and in some ways regressed.

His style of coaching was more of an old-school approach, focused on discipline, habits, and playing the game ‘the right way.’ He wasn’t what one would call a player’s coach, and some skilled players appeared to have their offensive creativity stifled.

This past summer, the Ducks fired Cronin and replaced him with three-time Stanley Cup Champion, Joel Quenneville, a coach known for being one of the very best at getting the most out of his players offensively. Under Quenneville, the Ducks’ offence is fourth-best in the NHL at 2.95 Goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Last season, they ranked 12th with 2.32 Goals per 60.

They’re scoring more, and the players are having fun and embracing their skillsets. Look at these heat maps courtesy of HockeyViz, which provide a good visual for their improved offensive output:

Each map shows the volume of shots the Ducks generate compared to league average.

Red Areas = more shots than league average

Blue Areas = fewer shots than league average

The deeper the shade, the bigger the difference. As you can see, not only is there a lot more red this season, but it’s largely concentrated in the inner slot – the most dangerous area on the ice. It’s a stark contrast to their relatively weak ability to get to the middle of the ice last season.

It’s not just the underlying numbers and shot charts that look better. Coaches around the league have taken notice of Anaheim’s new approach. Florida Panthers’ coach, Paul Maurice, summed it up well earlier this season.

“This Anaheim team now is built off transition in a lot of ways,” Maurice said. “They play very fast. They’ve got lots of skilled young players who can make plays off your transition. They’re moving into that category. They’re going to get their offence every night, and you just can’t feed it.”

The Ducks have had more pace to their game this season. Their young core, which includes Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, Beckett Sennecke, and Mason McTavish, is playing fast, getting up the ice, and letting their skill take over. So far, it’s creating problems for opposing teams.

Although it’s a positive for their goal totals, the new, aggressive run-and-gun approach is far from perfect — it inevitably gives back plenty of chances the other way. The Ducks are second-worst in the league in xGA and tend to get into some wild shootouts, where they both create and leak numerous chances.

If the Ducks want to compete for the Stanley Cup, they will need to learn to maintain a strong offensive output without sacrificing so much in return. For the time being, however, they’re playing the way they should be. As a young team, they need to let the kids cook offensively, to build their confidence and allow them to grow.

Lukas Dostal has developed into a quality starting goaltender, and he gives his team the confidence and ability to take these risks, knowing that he can bail them out most of the time when things go wrong. 

The Ducks are far from a finished product, but they’re finally trending in the right direction: fast, skilled, and dangerous. They’re becoming a problem for their division rivals.

What does this mean for the Edmonton Oilers?

As a perennial contender in the Pacific Division, the Oilers are no doubt watching the developments in Anaheim with great interest. The Ducks were little more than Edmonton’s punching bags not long ago, as the Oilers rattled off seven wins in a row head-to-head, before last year, when Anaheim won the season series 3-1. The Quenneville-era Ducks will present a new challenge.

The Ducks won’t be a Cup contender until they resolve their defensive issues and a few young players take another step forward, but they’re certainly a legitimate playoff contender in the West. For the first time in years, they’re serious competition for Edmonton in playoff seeding.

The Oilers can learn a thing or two from this young Ducks squad. Their up-tempo style of play is one that Edmonton can match with far fewer defensive warts than the Ducks. I would like to see them get back to that quick transition game. They’ll need it if they’re going to go toe to toe with an Anaheim team that’s transformed into one of the most fun products in the sport.

Data via Natural Stat Trick unless stated otherwise.