Three to watch, one to avoid for NASCAR's inaugural Iowa Cup race

Contender: Joey Logano (+850)

It seems like every time NASCAR visits a new track or a newly repaved surface, Logano is in the mix. He won the inaugural events at the Bristol dirt track and the L.A. Coliseum in recent years, and scored a dominant victory in this year's All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro following its repave by leading all but one lap.

Iowa should race somewhat similarly to North Wilkesboro, and this could be a golden opportunity for the two-time champion to win his way into the playoffs. His +850 odds are listed as the fourth-highest.

Dark horse: Chris Buescher (+1800)

Arguably Buescher's best track on the Cup Series schedule is Richmond Raceway, and if there's anywhere that Iowa is most comparable to in both length and design, it would be Richmond. He won at Iowa in the Xfinity Series in 2015 and his Roush-Fenway-Keselowski race team has been on fire as of late. Buescher has come close to winning a few times in 2024, and this could be the week he finally seals the deal.

At +1800, Buescher is the best value in the field this week. Eleven different drivers are listed with better odds than him, but it's hard to imagine there being even half of that many with a better chance to win than the driver of the No. 17 machine.

Avoid: Ryan Blaney (+1000)

If we're using success at Richmond as a predictor of who should be good at Iowa, then Blaney is one driver who may not be near the front this week as he has a career-best finish of seventh and only 131 laps led (128 of which came in one race) in sixteen starts at Iowa's closest thing to a sister track.

You can't ever say for sure until the cars take the green flag, especially on a track the Cup Series has never raced on before, but it doesn't seem like the risk on Blaney is worth his +1000 odds this week.