One move each AL East team must make before the trade deadline

The MLB trade deadline is July 30 at 6 p.m. ET, and because only 11 teams have winning records through June 16, it promises to be the most intriguing day of the season.

The American League East has been one of the most fascinating divisions to follow in 2024, with the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles emerging as legitimate World Series contenders. New York and Baltimore will surely be buyers at the trade deadline, but the Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays will have tough decisions to make.

With that in mind, here is one move each AL East team must make ahead of the trade deadline.

(All records and statistics are through games on 6/16)  

Baltimore Orioles (47-24)

The move: Acquire Cardinals RHP Ryan Helsley

Despite having the prospect capital to do so, Baltimore doesn't have to go all-in this deadline and drain its farm system via trades, as the roster is well-equipped to make a deep postseason run. However, the Orioles desperately need another high-leverage reliever, especially after left-hander Danny Coulombe (elbow) landed on the injured list in early June. They should consider paying a premium to fill their need.

St. Louis is one of several National League teams in the mix for a wild-card spot, but the Cardinals should probably consider selling off pieces in the coming weeks. Helsley, the MLB saves leader this season, should earn plenty of interest from contenders. Because he's only under contract until 2026, Helsley could be a player to move now.

In addition to his 24 saves, Helsley has a 2.53 ERA and 2.84 FIP with 36 strikeouts in 32 innings. Perhaps the starting pitcher-needy Cardinals would be interested in trading Helsley for a package centered on left-hander Cade Povich. 

Boston Red Sox (37-35) 

The move: Trade RHP Nick Pivetta for a pitcher or middle infielder with several years of control 

The Red Sox have been the definition of mediocre this season, posting a 37-35 record. This puts Boston at a crossroads with the deadline approaching, and while first-year chief baseball officer Craig Breslow will likely be criticized for it, he should continue building for the future.

With budding stars Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony and Kyle Teel in the minors, the Red Sox's long-term outlook appears promising. Therefore, Boston should strongly consider moving its rental pieces, and Pivetta might be the team's most valuable trade chip. Pivetta was roughed up for four runs in four innings in his last start but has been solid overall for the Red Sox, posting a 3.88 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.

While he won't command a top-ranked prospect via trade, Pivetta could still fetch Boston a decent young player who could serve as a valuable contributor for several seasons. The Vaughn Grissom experiment hasn't panned out, so perhaps the Red Sox could target a second baseman, though the team's lack of minor league pitching depth may be a priority to address before the deadline. 

New York Yankees (50-24) 

The move: Upgrade first base 

The Yankees would benefit from parting ways with second baseman Gleyber Torres, but with the trade market scarce with potential replacements, they should instead opt to upgrade at first base.

Impending free agent Anthony Rizzo has been a massive disappointment this season, producing a slash line of .223/.289/.341 with eight home runs and 28 RBI. Additionally, Rizzo's 84 wRC+ (MLB average is 100) is the 16th worst among qualified hitters in 2024.

Despite the fact that Pete Alonso (Mets) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays) may be available, it's unrealistic to believe the Yankees could pry either first baseman from their respective crosstown and division rivals. Nonetheless, Rizzo has performed poorly enough to suggest that making a move that might seem like a minor addition on the surface could pay major dividends for the Yankees.

Pittsburgh's Connor Joe, a first baseman with corner outfield versatility, could be an intriguing trade target for New York if it opts to take such a route. The 31-year-old is slashing .256/.332/.422 with seven homers and 28 RBI while posting a 114 wRC+. 

Toronto Blue Jays (35-36) 

The move: Trade first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 

Another team that must seriously re-evaluate its current core's long-term future before the deadline, Toronto would be wise to be one of this year's biggest sellers. Despite making the postseason in three of the past four years, the Blue Jays haven't won a playoff game since 2016. Significant roster changes are needed, and while trading Guerrero isn't an easy move, it might be necessary.

After struggling mightily over the past two seasons, Guerrero has bounced back a bit, slashing .284/.374/.406 in 71 games. Even so, Guerrero's power numbers (seven home runs and 30 RBI) and production when runners are in scoring position leave much to be desired.

With each passing year, it's clear Guerrero's monstrous 2021 season, during which he led the majors in homers (48) and played most of his home games in minor league ballparks, is an outlier.

Tampa Bay Rays (34-38) 

The move: Trade outfielder Randy Arozarena

The Rays are last in the AL East and have no chance of contending for a division title, which could prompt them to become sellers at the deadline. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently reported rival clubs are monitoring Tampa Bay's situation, mentioning Arozarena as a potential trade candidate.

There were rumors that Arozarena could've been traded this past offseason, and while his trade value has taken a hit due to his performance this season, the Rays should still see what they could get for him.

In 67 games this season, Arozarena is slashing .178/.291/.326 with nine home runs and just 22 RBI. Still, teams will probably look to his impressive production over the past three seasons and convince themselves he could be a bounce-back candidate in the second half of 2024. His penchant for stepping up in the postseason may look attractive to contending teams as well.

However, chances are Arozarena won't have drastically better results as the season progresses. After all, the one-time All-Star ranks in the seventh percentile in expected batting average and the 23rd percentile in expected slugging percentage, according to Baseball Savant.