Ranking which NBA duo will win its first championship next

TIER 4 - The Up-and-Comers

8. Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun • Houston Rockets

7. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner • Orlando Magic

Green and Sengun took major strides in 2023-24, but the Rockets' next trick is getting the ascending duo to do it together. Sengun finished third in Most Improved Player voting and propelled the Rockets early before a Grade 3 ankle sprain forced him to miss the final 18 games of the regular season. 

In his absence, Green, the No. 2 overall pick of the 2021 NBA Draft, leveled up, averaging 24.2 points on 45.3 percent shooting—including 38.1 percent on three-point attempts— 6.6 rebounds, 4.3 assists and one steal per game.

2022 No. 1 overall pick Banchero led the Magic to the playoffs in his second season, and along with Wagner, he gives Orlando a pair of 6-foot-10 forwards who can guard multiple positions. If one or both develop a reliable three-point stroke, look out.

TIER 3 - Treading Water

6. De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis • Sacramento Kings

5. Jaren Jackson and Ja Morant • Memphis Grizzlies

In the not-too-distant past, the Kings and Grizzlies had two of the Western Conference's brightest futures with their promising backcourt-frontcourt duos. But both hit snags this season, raising concern that they may have already peaked.

However, consider the Celtics with Brown and Tatum. After an Eastern Conference Finals appearance in 2020, they regressed to a .500 record and first-round playoff exit in 2021. Perhaps—like Boston—Sacramento's and Memphis' duos are simply in a lull before their real breakthroughs.

TIER 2 - The Odd Couple

4. Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns • Minnesota Timberwolves

3. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving • Dallas Mavericks

2. Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey • Philadelphia 76ers

With their outstanding postseasons, it seems like only a matter of time before Edwards and Doncic win their first NBA championships. However, whether their former No. 1 overall pick teammates are the right running mates is more debatable.

Towns and Irving wilted in the Timberwolves' and Mavericks' season-ending series, respectively. However, while both left bad final impressions, they were crucial to their teams going as far as they did. 

The 76ers' duo of Embiid and Maxey ranks higher for a couple of reasons despite less postseason success. For one, Philadelphia has a more manageable path in the East than the murderer's row in the Western Conference. Also, with a projected $55.5 million in cap space this offseason, the Sixers could add max-level talent to its All-Star core.

TIER 1 - What a Team Wants, What a Team Needs

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren • Oklahoma City Thunder

The runners-up for MVP (Gilgeous-Alexander) and Rookie of the Year (Holmgren) might soon be second to no one. In 2023-24, Gilgeous-Alexander, 25, became the youngest player to average at least 30 points and two steals per game since Kobe Bryant during his age-24 season (2002-03) and just the eighth player all-time.

Holmgren, too, was a defensive force for Oklahoma City, ranking fifth in the league with 2.3 blocks per game. The former Gonzaga star also shot 37 percent from deep on 4.3 attempts per game. The duo's awful AT&T commercial aside, Gilgeous-Alexander and Holmgren are off to a harmonious start to what should be a fruitful partnership.