Euro 2024 best bets for Sun. 6/23: Decision day for Group A

We left Georgia's first-point party to see Turkey and Portugal, Group F's winning teams, battle it out for first place in the group. What could have been a knuckles-out fist fight for the top spot devolved into a Portugal power display, though, after Turkey's Samet Akaydin drilled home the single most embarrassing own goal we've seen in years. Was it depressing to see aggressive, inspiring Turkey fall apart in that fashion? Yes. But was that own goal funny all the same? Also yes.

Finally, we headed up to Cologne to watch browbeaten Belgium recover from its opening day loss by beating Romania 2-0. You may remember that Belgium put the ball in the back of the net multiple times in its opening-day loss only to have every goal chalked off for offside; that trend continued against Romania. Poor old Romelu Lukaku found himself offside by the width of his fingers in this one. 

Matchday Three, the decision day for each of our six Euro groups, kicks off on Sunday with Group A: Germany vs. Switzerland and Scotland vs. Hungary.

A quick refresher on how this works: for each group, the top two teams advance automatically. The six third-place teams will have their records compared, and the top four will advance, too. The worst two third-place teams will be eliminated along with all the fourth-place teams.

Germany has already mathematically qualified from Group A. The other three remain in jeopardy as we enter the final day of group stage play.

Switzerland's path to advancement is simplest: if it beats Germany, it will win the group. If it draws or if Scotland beats Hungary, it will finish second. Basically, as long as Switzerland turns up tomorrow, its advancement is a near certainty.

Scotland and Hungary, though? Their game has much more riding upon it. Scotland must win to have any hope of advancing, but if it does, it will sit in third place on four points — it will have to hope that other third-place teams will finish with worse records. Hungary, meanwhile, must beat Scotland to finish third and score plenty of goals along the way to repair its negative goal difference. If it beats Scotland by just one goal, it'll finish third with just three points — likely not enough to move forward.

Where are the best bets in all this? We think they're here:

Switzerland's consistency. The Germans are heavily favored in their match against the Swiss, but a) Germany is likely to rest players since its knockout position is secure, and b) Switzerland has never lost a Matchday Three game in any of its last eight tournament appearances. It also has a stellar recent record against Germany and will not be overawed. We're backing a Switzerland win or tie here at +115.

Germany's captain. While Germany may rest several of its key players, we're expecting to see captain Ilkay Gundogan suit up against Switzerland regardless. He scored a beautiful goal against Hungary in Matchday Two and appears to be thriving in coach Julian Nagelsmann's system. We're backing him as an anytime goal scorer against the Swiss at +275.

Scotland and Hungary's knife-edge balance. It's next to impossible to predict this Scotland-Hungary game: the odds have it as a dead heat between the two. We're inclined to lean towards a draw for that reason at +280, but honestly, even that feels risky. We do know one thing: that Scotland's Scott McTominay will turn up in a big way. He always does when Scotland needs him to. He's at +120 to score or assist in this one; we think that's a steal.

Germany vs. Switzerland and Scotland vs. Hungary will kick off simultaneously on Sunday, June 23 at 3 p.m. ET. See you there!