Euro 2024 best bets: Decision day for Group B

Germany's last-gasp draw against Switzerland means it will advance to the knockout rounds in first place; the Swiss will slot in second. Hungary is capable of advancing from its third-place spot, but its three-game tally of three points may not be enough to confirm it. Only the best four of the six third-place teams will advance once all is said and done, so the agonizing wait will continue for Hungary.

In the meantime, it's time to turn our attention to Group B. Spain will face Albania and Italy will face Croatia on Monday, June 24 at 3 p.m. ET. Group B is a simple prospect at the top: Spain has won the group, no matter what happens in this final game. From there, though, things get tricky.

Italy is in the best position of the other three sides. If it wins or draws against Croatia, it's through to the knockout rounds in second place, no matter what happens in the other game. Its future, therefore, is firmly in its own hands. If it loses to Croatia, Italy will have to hope that Albania also loses against Spain — that would enter it into the third-place advancement pool. If Italy loses and Albania wins, though, Italy will be eliminated from the tournament.

Albania — the team everyone expected to finish last in Group B — has a difficult path forward. It must beat group winners Spain to have any realistic shot at advancement. But consider this: since Spain will be in first place no matter what, it's likely to rest most of its starting players, giving Albania a much better shot at a win than it otherwise would've had. Spain will also be without midfield maestro Rodri, who received his second yellow card of the tournament against Italy and will therefore be suspended for this match. Rodri is something of a talisman: when he plays, his teams win, and when he's absent, his teams lose. The task is difficult but everything is coming up Albania in this last round of games.

Croatia, though, is in real trouble. The World Cup semifinalist has just one point from two games and needs everything to go its way to secure advancement. It must beat Italy to have a shot: if it loses, it will be out, no matter what happens in the other match.

Four hotheaded Southern European teams, two games, and a whole lot of permutations to work through. Where are the best bets in all this? We think they're here:

Albania's stroke of good fortune. Spain is the strongest team we've seen thus far at the Euros; it looks like everyone is going to struggle to break them down. Fortunately for Albania, though, it won't have to face a full-strength Spain. With advancement sealed and first place in the group confirmed, Spain has the opportunity to rest most of its starting eleven in this match, and we expect it to use it. That means that while the odds say this game is between Albania and Spain, it's really between Albania and Spain's B-team.

With important players likely to drop out and Rodri out with a suspension, the romantic side of us thinks Albania can do the unthinkable here. We like the look of a draw at +350, but more conservative bettors can go all in on a draw or Albania win at +162 instead.

Croatia's possession dominance. Croatia has yet to win a game at these Euros but it's dominated possession in each of its two appearances — it held the ball 67% of the time against Albania and 54% of the time against Spain. Italy, conversely, was thoroughly out-possessed in its game against Spain. We think that Croatia will want the ball as often as possible in this match and Italy will be all too happy to let it have it ... and that means we're backing midfield workhorse Mateo Kovacic to complete at least 69 passes at -120.

Italy's right-wing tackles. While Italy's defense has been shaky at this tournament, it's easy to see why: it's faced down two incredible attacking sides in Albania and Spain. Right back Giovanni di Lorenzo has seen the worst of it, with Armando Broja, Taulant Seferi, Nico Williams and Fabian Ruiz crashing down his flanks on the first two matchdays. He's not about to get off the hook early. di Lorenzo will face Croatia's Mateo Kovacic and Andrej Kramaric on Matchday Three. Despite his struggles, di Lorenzo put up multiple successful tackles in both of his games; we think he's a shoo-in to complete at least two successful tackles in this one at -150.

Spain vs. Albania and Italy vs. Croatia will kick off on Monday, June 24 at 3 p.m. ET. See you there!