The New York Yankees find themselves in a challenging position at first base, where the recent loss of underperforming Anthony Rizzo has left a void.
The platoon at the position of rookie Ben Rice and veteran J.D. Davis isn't ideal, prompting discussions about potential trade candidates, notably Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Toronto Blue Jays.
From an offensive standpoint, Guerrero appears to be a straightforward solution. Despite his overall stats not being spectacular, he ranks in the top percentiles of several categories, according to Baseball Savant.
Guerrero's slash line of .288/.368/.435 through 79 games this season shows he's still a significant threat at the plate. Adding him to the Yankees' lineup could provide their desperately needed offensive boost.
Blue Jays Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits the longest Home Run of his career.
— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) June 25, 2024
The 471-foot bomb is the 3rd longest ever hit at Fenway Park in the Statcast Era#TOTHECORE pic.twitter.com/eXLXJIO6iK
However, Guerrero's fit with the Yankees isn't without complications. Defensively, he's a liability, posting a -3 run value in 2024 after a -10 in 2023. The Yankees, already struggling defensively with Gleyber Torres leading the league in errors as a second baseman, don't need another defensive risk.
Guerrero is essentially limited to first base and designated hitter roles, positions already crowded on the Yankees' roster, particularly with Giancarlo Stanton expected to return this season.
Well, this just about sums it up.
— Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson) June 25, 2024
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., backpedalling the entire way, drops this pop fly that George Springer could have easily had.
The runner races around to third with a triple… and scores soon after. #BlueJays pic.twitter.com/MgA2LTNWZQ
The financial aspect of acquiring Guerrero is another significant hurdle. His $19.9M salary would push the Yankees even further past the luxury tax threshold, which they are already exceeding by over $78,000, according to Spotrac.
With Guerrero likely to command an even higher salary in his final arbitration season in 2025, the financial strain on the Yankees would only increase.
Meanwhile, the Toronto Blue Jays are not faring much better. Entering play on Wednesday, they are 6.5 games back of the final wild-card slot in the American League, sitting at a disappointing 36-43 and in last in the AL East.
With a -46 run differential, the team has struggled throughout the season, looking lethargic and with a pitching staff in shambles. Their advanced stats on both the offensive and pitching sides are poor, save for Guerrero.
The Blue Jays are closer to the Los Angeles Angels than a playoff spot, highlighting their dire situation. Toronto must decide their next moves with the MLB trade deadline approaching on July 30 at 6 p.m. ET.
In response to their struggles, the Blue Jays have already made significant roster moves, including designating Cavan Biggio (later traded) and Daniel Vogelbach for assignment. Despite these efforts, the team remains ranked 24th out of 30 teams in the latest Bleacher Report rankings, indicating that a turnaround this season is unlikely. This positions Guerrero as a prime trade candidate, potentially fetching a substantial return as the Blue Jays consider a full rebuild.
For the Yankees, Guerrero's offensive potential is enticing, but the cons may outweigh the pros. His redundancy on the roster, defensive liabilities, and significant salary make him a less-than-ideal fit. Additionally, the Yankees must consider their already strained payroll and the implications of further exceeding the luxury tax threshold.
While Guerrero has softened his stance on joining the Yankees, the reality is that this trade is more smoke than fire. The Yankees need a solution at first base, but Guerrero is probably not the right answer given the financial and defensive risks involved. The team's focus should remain on finding a more balanced and financially viable option to bolster their roster for the remainder of the season.
The Arizona Diamondbacks might consider trading veteran Christian Walker, 33, who has a 1.9 WAR this season and a manageable $10.9M salary. The Diamondbacks are currently 1.5 games behind the final wild-card spot in the National League. If they don't gain momentum, they could become sellers at the trade deadline, and the Yankees could benefit.
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