Ranking gold-medal chances for top eight Olympic men's basketball teams

Spain | +5000

Spain's roster includes veteran NBA player Willy Hernangomez and Memphis Grizzlies forward Santiago Aldama. With Usman Garuba, Lorenzo Brown, Rudy Fernandez and Juancho Hernangomez, Spain has the potential for upsets. However, it faces a tough group stage with Australia, Greece and Canada.

Australia | +5000

The Aussies will rely on a blend of experienced players and emerging talent, including Patty Mills, Joe Ingles, Matthew Dellavedova, Josh Green, Dante Exum, Josh Giddey and Dyson Daniels. They claimed bronze at the last Olympics but will have a more challenging path this time in a group with Canada, Greece and Spain.

Greece | +2400

Greece, led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, returns to the Olympics for the first time since 2008. The Greeks lack the NBA-level depth of other squads, but Antetokounmpo's presence alone makes them a formidable opponent. Greece's group-stage draw is relatively favorable, avoiding heavyweights France, Serbia and the United States. This gives the Greeks a solid chance to advance, with Canada being their toughest competition.

Germany | +2400

Germany, the reigning FIBA World Cup champions, is led by Orlando Magic star Franz Wagner and Dennis Schroder, who earned MVP honors in the World Cup final. Germany remains largely unchanged from that championship run. The Germans' strong chemistry and experience make this team a serious contender for a medal.

Serbia | +1600

Serbia looks to capitalize on having Denver Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic, a three-time NBA MVP, and Atlanta Hawks guard Bogdan Bogdanovic. Serbia reached the World Cup final without Jokic, so his inclusion makes it even more dangerous. The Serbs will face an early test against Team USA in Group C, a game that should be a key indicator of their medal prospects.

France | +1600

France finished second in the last Olympics and has added the sensational Victor Wembanyama of the San Antonio Spurs to the roster. In a recent friendly against Germany, Wembanyama showcased his potential with 25 points, five rebounds and three assists in 19 minutes. France's already strong team becomes even more challenging with Wembanyama, setting up a possible rematch with Team USA in the gold-medal game.

Canada | +1100

Canada is positioned as the top challenger to Team USA. The Canadian squad features Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jamal Murray, RJ Barrett, Dillon Brooks, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Luguentz Dort. Despite facing potential challenges in containing dominant big men, Canada has the defensive prowess and offensive firepower to be a daunting opponent. The Canadians' success will depend on how well they can integrate their talents into a cohesive team under FIBA rules.

USA | -470

Team USA enters as the heavy favorite. The Americans blend the youthful energy from Anthony Edwards and Tyrese Haliburton with the seasoned experience of LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry. Joel Embiid’s commitment to Team USA over France or Cameroon significantly boosts the United States' defensive capabilities. Following a disappointing fourth-place finish in the World Cup, this star-studded team is highly motivated to reclaim the gold.