Yardbarker
Copa America best bets: How to bet Colombia vs. Argentina in Sunday's final 
Argentina forward Angel Di Maria (11) and forward Lionel Messi (10) celebrate with teammates after the match against Canada. Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Copa America best bets: How to bet Colombia vs. Argentina in Sunday's final 

When Argentina went to the 2022 World Cup, many people already had it pegged as the tournament winner. It had a legendary star in Messi, a handful of talented kids in Enzo Fernandez and Julian Alvarez, a supporting cast of players from the world's best leagues and a coach that knew how to get the best out of everyone. It also, not for nothing, entered the tournament on the back of an unbeaten streak stretching back nearly two years.


Copa America final: Argentina vs. Colombia, Sunday, July 14, 8 p.m. ET, FOX (Odds: Argentina favored over Colombia)


This context mattered. It framed Argentina as a potential champion long before a ball was kicked, and in tournaments like the World Cup believing tends to be half the battle. But the context matters for the 2024 Copa America too. We're hearing lots of chatter online about how this is Argentina's final to lose, with the implication being that the whole game is nothing but a formality. Don't believe it. Because let us tell you something: only one team is entering the Copa America final with a legendary star, a handful of talented kids, a supporting cast of players from the world's best leagues, a coach that knows how to get the best of everyone and a multi-year unbeaten streak ... and it sure as heck isn't Argentina.

Colombia has been the great mystery of this Copa. It's had everything going for it since the start, but it's almost like we couldn't believe — or didn't want to believe — that it was a legitimate challenger. Coach Nestor Lorenzo and his men have generously set us straight. They've been incredible from their first kick of the tournament, scoring twelve goals and conceding just two. And they did all that from the most difficult side of the bracket, too. Argentina had to beat Chile, Ecuador and Canada to make this final; Colombia had to take down Brazil, Panama and Uruguay. 

Colombia's rise isn't down to any one player, but the resurgence of World Cup 2014 superstar James Rodriguez has generated the most headlines. He's been spectacular this summer and broke Lionel Messi's Copa America assist record in Colombia's game against Uruguay.

But can Colombia survive a battle with the world champions? Argentina famously gives no quarter and it will be playing in Miami in front of a sea of Messi fans. And while Argentina has lost recently (to Uruguay and Saudi Arabia) its international record remains stellar. It's had to grind out a few results at this Copa, but it's delivered, and it's clearly still capable of mind-boggling brilliance.

This Copa final will also be the swan song for some of Argentina's greatest-ever players. Angel di Maria and Nicolas Otamedi (both 36) are expected to hang up their cleats after this game and retire from the national team for good. Messi isn't going to do the same, but he has hinted that this will be his final Copa appearance: with the next one not coming for four years, that makes perfect sense. He'll want nothing more than to send off his teammates with a win after years of Copa struggles.

Colombia and Argentina: it's a closer match than you might think. Here's where we think the best bets are hiding:

The redemption of James Rodriguez. If you've forgotten what James Rodriguez's Puskas-winning goal from the 2014 World Cup looked like, here's your reminder:

If you had told us then that in a decade's time he'd be faded into relative obscurity, no one would have believed you. But that's exactly what happened — and this Copa has been Rodriguez's big moment back in the spotlight after a long time away. It clearly means a lot to him: he broke down in tears in a post-Uruguay interview. "I've been wanting this for 13 years," he said. 

We couldn't be happier for James. He's a wonderful player, and one we think has everything it takes to light up a Copa America final. Call us basic, but we're backing him to continue his streak and score or assist against Argentina at +220.

Messi showing some grit. Finals are about nerves under pressure: they tend to be won by the teams (and players) who aren't overawed by the occasion. That's Messi: he's been in enough championship finals to know exactly what to do when the going gets tough. While Messi's an attacking player, he tends to drop back and support his teammates in big games like this one, so we're backing him to make at least one tackle here at +162.

Cristian Romero's visionary play.  If you follow our Premier League coverage in this space, then you know just how much stick we give Cristian Romero for his boneheaded aggression. (It comes from a place of genuine love: we're big fans of players who aren't afraid to mess things up.) But this Copa has shone a light on another important aspect of Romero's game: his passing vision from the defensive third. When Argentina was struggling to break through Ecuador in the quarterfinals it was Romero who orchestrated the team's forward charges; we think a similar situation will take place against Colombia and are backing him to make more than 70 passes at -120.


Our Bark Bets sports betting newsletter has the news, picks and analysis smart bettors are using to win. Sign up today!


Alyssa Clang

Alyssa is a Boston-born Californian with a passion for global sport. She can yell about misplaced soccer passes in five languages and rattle off the turns of Silverstone in her sleep. You can find her dormant Twitter account at @alyssaclang, but honestly, you’re probably better off finding her here

More must-reads:

Customize Your Newsletter

Yardbarker +

Get the latest news and rumors, customized to your favorite sports and teams. Emailed daily. Always free!