Dominant A's reliever open to returning to rotation

Athletics right-hander Mason Miller has broken out as one of the most dominant relievers in the world this year, which will lead to an interesting decision about his future role. He tells Bob Nightengale of USA Today that he’s open to returning to the rotation down the line but also appears somewhat tempted to stick where he’s having success.

“I don’t think I want to close that opportunity,” Miller said of possibly starting someday. “If the opportunity presents itself, maybe, but with the success I’ve had [as a closer], I think it’s a difficult decision to say I want to get away from that.”

Miller, 25, was primarily a starter in college but wasn’t able to stay healthy in his first few professional seasons. He was drafted in 2021 but then was held back by a shoulder strain in 2022, limited to just 14 innings over six minor league starts. Last year, he made two minor league starts and four in the majors before landing on the injured list with forearm tightness. He was eventually diagnosed with a sprained UCL in his throwing elbow and avoided surgery but wasn’t able to return until September.

In December, general manager David Forst discussed Miller’s situation, with Martín Gallegos of MLB.com relaying his sentiments on X. Forst said the club was planning to have Miller serve in a relief role in 2024, with a return to starting a possibility down the road, but they wanted him to stay healthy for a full season first.

As mentioned, 2024 has been a banner year for Miller so far in that relief role. He already has 15 saves and a 2.27 earned run average in 39 2/3 innings. He has struck out an incredible 46.7 percent of batters faced. Among pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched this year, Josh Hader is second in the strikeout rate category but well behind Miller at 40.4 percent. He has been selected to his first All-Star team this year.

If Miller stays healthy in the second half, the question will turn to what comes next and it appears the A’s don’t yet have a firm decision. 

“I don’t know,” A’s manager Mark Kotsay said to Nightengale. 

The skipper added that he didn’t want to rule anything out, but they are still focused on keeping Miller healthy in 2024, before addressing the inherent pros and cons of the decision. 

“There’s more value there in the innings," he said, "but obviously there’s more impact with the opportunity for us to win a game at the back end with him being the closer.’’

This season, various players have attempted to the reliever-to-starter move, with varying degrees of success. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently took a look at the results, with Garrett Crochet and Reynaldo López two of the best success stories with A.J. Puk on the other end of the spectrum.

The A’s control Miller for another five seasons after this one and are currently rebuilding. That gives them some leeway to experiment if they and Miller decide that they want to, but there would also be an argument for simply continuing with what’s working. Many closers around baseball are former starters who were put into late-inning roles due to health issues or workload concerns, then were simply kept there because it was working.

Miller is one of the hardest throwers in baseball, averaging 100.9 miles per hour. He already has the UCL sprain and the significant shoulder strain on his track record. He would likely have to pull back on the velocity a bit if he were to move into a starter’s role but it would still be a new challenge keeping his body healthy for the marathon of starting for a full season, as opposed to the high-octane relief role he’s been in this year.

Broadly speaking, having an effective starting pitcher give a club 150 to 200 quality innings is more valuable than 50 to 60 innings of relief work. That’s why the best starting pitchers are paid more than the best relievers, both in arbitration and in free agency. Controllable starters also tend to bring back larger returns when traded, as compared to their relief counterparts. 

Miller has been speculated as a trade candidate this season, reportedly drawing lots of interest, though with the A’s setting a high asking price. They would likely have to be blown away to trade five-plus years of such a dominant pitcher and the possibility of him returning to a rotation down the line could conceivably give him even more trade value at some point.

Both the A’s and Miller would stand to benefit if he could successfully take on a rotation role, but whether they pursue it or not could depend on the comfort level from both sides, as well as the ongoing monitoring of his health.