Three to watch, one to avoid for the Brickyard 400

The NASCAR Cup Series is back at the famed Indianapolis Motor Speedway for Sunday's Brickyard 400, the first race on Indy's oval circuit since Kevin Harvick pulled out a victory in 2020.

Harvick is no longer active in the Cup Series — in fact, only three previous Brickyard 400 winners are in Sunday's field and one of them is the semi-retired Jimmie Johnson. 

This race could be a bit of a wild card, so let's look at three drivers to watch — a favorite, contender and a dark horse — as well as one name who probably won't be kissing the yard of bricks.

Favorite: Ryan Blaney (+750, per DraftKings as of Friday afternoon)

Perhaps the best way to predict who will run up front at Indy is to look at who ran up front last weekend at Pocono, a similar long, flat oval. It was Blaney who won there and he's arguably the hottest driver in the series.

Blaney hasn't had much success at the Brickyard, with only one top-10 finish (a seventh-place finish in 2019) and 26 laps led in six starts, but he's a much-improved driver from what he was four years ago. At +750, he may be your best bet.

Contender: Brad Keselowski (+750)

Also at +750 is Keselowski, tied with Blaney for the third-highest odds behind only usual suspects Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson. Keselowski is one of the two full-time drivers in the field with a previous Brickyard win (taking the checkered flag in 2018) and he was strong at Pocono, leading 20 laps and finishing seventh.

Keselowski may seem a bit risky at that price, but perhaps the oddsmakers are onto something. The 2012 Cup Series champion is currently enjoying his best season in several years and could be a factor Sunday.

Dark horse: Bubba Wallace (+2800)

Arguably no one in the Cup Series field needs a win in a worse way than Wallace, who sits as the first driver outside the playoff grid at 27 points behind Ross Chastain. Indy may be his best opportunity in the five remaining races before the playoffs begin. In Wallace's past two races on the oval, he finished third and ninth.

Wallace, who is also quietly riding a hot streak with an average finish of 10th in the past three weeks, seems undervalued at +2800. It may take strategy for him to contend for the win, but he's sure to be fast Sunday.

Avoid: Kyle Larson (+600)

Larson has been the class of the field in 2024, but he has hit a miniature slump (by his standards) over the past few weeks (no laps led in his past four races and back-to-back finishes outside the top 10). Larson's record at Indy's oval also isn't stellar, with only 10 laps led in six starts and no finishes better than 14th since 2016.

It's worth noting that none of those previous Brickyard starts came with Hendrick Motorsports, Larson's current team. He also has more recent experience on the oval than any other driver in the field after running the Indianapolis 500 in May. Larson could easily still be a threat this weekend, but given his lack of speed at Pocono, you might be better off spending your money elsewhere.