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Five reasons the 2025 NBA Draft is wildly unpredictable
The 2025 NBA Draft appears to have a clear-cut top two picks in Duke's Cooper Flagg and Dylan Harper of Rutgers. After that, the draft is full of uncertainty, especially after the lottery. Here are five reasons that this draft looks very difficult to predict.
1. The Philadelphia 76ers have a lot of options at No. 3
The Dallas Mavericks are expected to select Flagg with the top pick, and Sam Vecenie of The Athletic believes that the only way the San Antonio Spurs would pass on Harper is if they made a blockbuster deal for Giannis Antetokounmpo. Past those two players, there is no consensus No. 3 prospect, nor a consensus on what approach the Sixers will take with their veteran-led team.
Philadelphia might simply take its favorite prospect from a group that includes Ace Bailey (Rutgers), VJ Edgecombe (Baylor), Tre Johnson (Texas) and Kon Knueppel (Duke). But they might use the pick as leverage to get off one of their unwanted salaries, either by trading down or getting a veteran. If they got ambitious, they could even try to move last season's disappointing big-money signing, Paul George. It's hard to know what will happen past pick No. 3 when it isn't clear which team will be picking there.
2. Some teams have too many first-round picks
The Oklahoma City Thunder have done a masterful job of constantly replenishing their store of draft picks in the last six years, but now they have the No. 15 and No. 24 selections this year, and 15 players already under contract for 2025-26. Thanks to the Mikal Bridges trade, the Brooklyn Nets have four picks in the first round. The Orlando Magic have 15 players under contract next year and draft at No. 16 and No. 25, while the Atlanta Hawks have No. 13 and No. 22.
That's four teams that should be interested in trading up, or trading out of the first round entirely. Not only are first-round picks unlikely to help immediately, but they also carry guaranteed contracts. The Nets don't want to add four rookies in the same season. The Thunder are already the second-youngest Finals team in history. It's unlikely all four of those teams stay put, and not at all unlikely that all four trade one of their picks.
3. NIL money has convinced many prospects to return to college
The No. 30 pick in the NBA Draft gets a starting salary of $2.74M in 2025-26. Yaxel Lendeborg, a projected first-round pick this season, withdrew from the draft and transferred to the University of Michigan for an NIL package rumored to be around $3M.
For players who don't expect to go in the lottery, it can be safer to take guaranteed money to play in college. JT Toppin was expected to be selected late in the first round or early in the second. Now he's going back to Texas Tech for $4M. Plus, they can always enter the draft next season.
NEW: JT Toppin is expected to make around $4M in NIL at Texas Tech next season, @MattNorlander reportshttps://t.co/DFUayFSGMY https://t.co/vrV2CKRuJZ pic.twitter.com/EzzB07gs5p
— On3 (@On3sports) April 9, 2025
That means that the number of quality players normally available in the middle of the draft has dropped precipitously. The 2021 draft had 363 early-entrant candidates. Four years later, only 106 players declared by the end of April, and 50 of them have since pulled out of the draft. Expect more international players and projects to go late, and second-round picks to be less valuable.
The 2025 NBA Draft has its fewest early entrants in a decade.
— Front Office Sports (@FOS) May 28, 2025
It's less than 1/3 of the early entrants the year before the NIL era began. pic.twitter.com/Fh6BMrA8KQ
4. The NBA's worst teams aren't picking at the top
Flagg would have changed the direction of any franchise he went to, but he's going to a team that was in the NBA Finals one year ago. That means the worst teams in the NBA — the Utah Jazz, Charlotte Hornets and Washington Wizards — have to choose between imperfect players for rosters that have plenty of holes.
Would Charlotte opt for the higher ceiling of Ace Bailey over the more NBA-ready shooting of Kon Knueppel? Do the Wizards take one of the tantalizing combo guards in this range even after picking second team All-Rookie guard Bub Carrington last year? It's hard to know how much teams will draft for fit or best player available, or which players they consider best in the first place.
5. Teams are trying to trade or buy their way back in
The Sacramento Kings are rumored to be making an "aggressive" pursuit of a first-round pick. They're one of nine NBA teams who don't currently have a pick in the draft's first round, a group that includes the Cleveland Cavaliers, New York Knicks, Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers.
Particularly with potential impact players returning to school, don't be surprised if some of these teams use second-rounders, players and cash to get into the first round. For high-salary playoff teams, the late first round gives a unique opportunity to get affordable talent that's cost-controlled for four seasons. Teams pushing up against the various tax aprons may be especially interested. That's why, less than two weeks before the draft, picks 3-60 should be considered completely up in the air. Get ready to tear up a lot of mock drafts until then.
More must-reads:
- Hawks and Nets Could Strike A Deal Before The NBA Draft
- Latest NBA mock gives Chicago Bulls steal of 2025 NBA Draft
- The 'Naismith Men's Player of the Year Award winner' quiz
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