WNBA picks, predictions and odds: Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics for Sat. 8/17

Minnesota Lynx: Collier's Return Paying Off

All-Star Napheesa Collier missed Minnesota’s final five games before the extended Olympics break. During that stretch, the Lynx’s offense plummeted, and their top-ranked defense became somewhat vulnerable.  

Fortunately for Minnesota, Collier made her return against the Mystics two days ago, and she looked superb. Whether it was terrorizing them as a roller or sealing her defender in the post, Collier shined. The box score thoroughly agreed – she dropped 17 points, 12 rebounds, and four assists. 

Meanwhile, Kayla McBride has been a bit Jekyll and Hyde recently in terms of efficiency. For example, the following are McBride’s 3pt stats from the past five games: 

• 1/4
• 6/12
• 2/10
• 4/8
• 2/8

Overall, she is at 35.7% from 3-point range across her last 10 games. If she can be a touch more consistent, then Minnesota’s top two scorers are extremely difficult to limit because they complement each other well. 

Washington Mystics: Is It Too Late for Washington?

Washington welcomed back starters Brittney Sykes and Shakira Austin from lengthy injuries on Thursday. 

Sykes finished third in Defensive Player of the Year voting last season, and she has reached an All-Defensive team for four straight seasons now. Factor in her playmaking with her outside shooting, and it’s huge news for Washington. 

Austin, on the other hand, is a glass-cleaner who adds value as a cutter, roller, and post up scorer. She provides much-needed size for the Mystics at 6’5” tall.

Although they are far better with those two back in the mix, it may be too little too late. Washington sits 4.5 games back of 8th-seeded Chicago, and there are three teams in between them. It will be tough to catch Chicago with only 14 games remaining, especially since six of them are versus the current top-four seeds. 

Lynx vs. Mystics: Minnesota's Too Powerful

Betting Pick & Prediction

Washington played Minnesota to an even draw through three quarters before ultimately losing by double digits. I expect something similar in this rematch: a hard-fought first half followed by the Lynx pulling away in the early fourth quarter. 

Last game was Collier’s first chance to shake off the rust and play big minutes in a WNBA regular season setting. She stuffed the box score, but it was the ease with which she did so that impressed most. Even when Collier didn't receive the pass, her gravity and ability to find space drastically increased shot quality for teammates. Minnesota’s offense should thrive with her on the court here. 

Plus, a bounce-back game for McBride could be in the stars because of Washington’s suspect 3-point defense. If she finds her rhythm – which is highly possible given her talent – then the Lynx will stress Washington’s defense to its breaking point. 

Finally, Minnesota’s hyper-elite defense and knack for forcing turnovers provide them with a much higher floor than Washington, thus giving the Lynx a larger margin for error on offense. 

I would play this spread down to a 7.5 point line. It gets too dicey to me beyond that.