LSU vs. USC prediction, pick, odds for Sun. 9/1

On the other side, LSU head coach Brian Kelly begins his third season after falling right outside LSU's goal of making the College Football Playoff.

The Tigers brought in the best portal haul just two seasons ago, taking in eventual Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels.

Fast forward to Las Vegas on Sunday night, and there will be plenty of intrigue as both teams move on from their Heisman quarterbacks.

So, where does the betting value lie on Sunday. Read on for my full LSU vs. USC prediction.

LSU vs. USC Prediction

• LSU vs. USC Pick: USC +4 or Better
  • Click here to bet the Trojans to cover the spread instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip — the bet is added directly to your bet slip at FanDuel automatically!

My LSU-USC best bet is on the Trojans to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

LSU vs. USC Odds

Sunday, Sept. 1

7:30 p.m. ET

ABC

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

• LSU vs USC Point Spread: LSU -4.5 (-104) · USC +4.5 (-118)
• LSU vs USC Total: Over/Under 64.5
• LSU vs USC Moneyline: LSU -178 · USC +146

LSU vs. USC Preview

LSU Tigers Betting Preview: New Defense Expected?

LSU had to make a change on defense after one of the worst seasons in program history.

While the Tigers ranked top-10 nationally in a number of offensive categories, the defense ranked bottom-10 in Finishing Drives and allowing explosives on passing downs.

There was no resistance against the rush, as six of the eight SEC teams on the schedule scored 30 or more points in conference play.

To improve on those stats, Kelly landed Missouri defensive coordinator Blake Baker to join the effort.

Baker implemented a 3-3-5 scheme with a split of Cover 1 and Cover 3 while at Missouri. The Tigers were one of the most Havoc-minded defenses in the country, a factor that should translate to LSU.

Missouri improved significantly against the rush, holding top-25 metrics in Success Rate, Line Yards and Stuff Rate against a stiff SEC schedule of rushers.

The biggest issues came in giving up explosives and when opponents reached scoring position. Missouri fell to 120th in standard downs explosives allowed, while opponents crossing the 40-yard line averaged 4.2 points per attempt.

The LSU offense will have a different look after two years with Jayden Daniels under center.

Garrett Nussmeier patiently waited for his turn in Baton Rouge, bringing a cannon for an arm with a career average depth of target at 11.8 yards.

Since 2021, Nussmeier has more than doubled his big-time throw to turnover-worthy play rate in 219 attempts.

Kyren Lacy will move into the top receiver role after an even distribution of snaps in the slot and wideout last season.

However, LSU's rushing attack has plenty of question marks with Josh Williams expected to get the most carries. Williams averaged a poor 2.4 yards after contact a season ago in 55 attempts.

The best news for LSU heading into 2024 is the offensive line, led by a pair of NFL tackles in Emery Jones Jr. and Will Campbell. Both ranked top-40 among individual tackles in overall blocking grades last season, with Campbell's run-blocking grade the best of any returning player in college football.

USC Trojans Betting Preview: Moss Takes Over

After serving many years under Riley in Norman and Los Angeles, defensive coordinator Alex Grinch was let go to make way for crosstown rival D'Anton Lynn from UCLA.

The Trojans had allowed 28 points to every team on the Pac-12 schedule. However, Lynn brings home after revamping the Bruins into an efficient and Havoc-generating squad.

Lynn used to serve on the Baltimore Ravens' staff — one of many assistants who departed for the college ranks. The transformation of the Michigan defense under Jesse Minter and Mike MacDonald played out at UCLA, as Lynn brought a multi-front nickel package defense using quarters and Cover 1 to prevent explosives.

A 22% blitz rate created the seventh-best Havoc number in the nation, topped by the best overall pass rush in college football. The Bruins stifled opposing rush attacks, moving from outside the top 100 in Defensive Rushing Success Rate and Stuff Rate to 31st  and fifth, respectively.

The pedigree is there to produce a similar turnaround at USC.

Anthony Lucas gets the start at edge as a blue-chip recruit who couldn't find consistent playing time at Texas A&M. Bear Alexander has the talent to dominate from the interior but lists as an "OR" on the depth chart with the rise of Gavin Meyer.

The Trojans also added Mason Cobb, who was a key to Oklahoma State's defensive success at middle linebacker two seasons ago, while safety Kamari Ramsey transfers in with Lynn from UCLA.

Any improvement to a poor USC defense will benefit an offense that's expected to be a powder keg of explosives.

Miller Moss won the job at quarterback, drawing rave reviews from the coaching staff. Miller dominated the Holiday Bowl in his first start, ringing up a stout Louisville defense for six touchdowns and 372 passing yards.

While the simple explanation for the hot start of Moss' career was that the Cardinals didn't have tape, the quarterback still won the job in fall camp over UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava because of his ability to protect the ball.

The list of weapons on the offense is plentiful, starting at slot with Zachariah Branch. Additionally, Makai Lemon was limited in experience a season ago but averaged more than two yards per route run after being recruited as a top-10 receiver.

In the backfield, Jo'Quavious Marks did everything during his time at Mississippi State, giving USC an element who can run between the tackles and catch balls in the flat.

LSU vs. USC Pick & Prediction

College football fans and bettors will see Allegiant Stadium's fast track and the weak defenses from previous years and immediately gravitate toward the over.

While the number continues to creep up, 65 is the largest key number in this range for totals and will create a battle in wagers leading up to kickoff.

The total in this game will be decided by which defensive coordinator has implemented their flavor of defense through fall camp.

The bad news for LSU is Baker's consistent issues in stopping the pass at Missouri. The Tigers were mid-FBS in Defensive Success Rate against the pass, falling to 72nd in Pass EPA Allowed.

Opposing quarterbacks had little resistance hitting targets in stride, considering the Tigers' rank of 68th in on-target ball allowed.

LSU is expected to start a number of inexperienced players in the secondary due to talent level or injury.

Freshman PJ Woodland is sure to get USC's attention at cornerback, while fellow corner Zy Alexander posted below-replacement-level coverage numbers for LSU last season after transferring from Southeastern Louisiana.

Pick: USC +4 or Better

How to Watch LSU vs. USC Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location

LSU vs. USC Betting Trends

• LSU had taken 56% of the bets but only 53% of the money.
• The over has landed only 33% of the tickets but has generated 59% of the money.

About the Author

Collin is a senior writer for the Action Network, but serves in various roles behind the scenes as well. As someone who specializes in data visualization of probabilities, power ratings, and head-to-head matchups, Collin’s work within the college football space powers the Action Network’s PRO projections throughout the college football season, and has done so since the birth of the app in 2017. Collin contributes similarly to the college basketball vertical, and his passion for predictive analytics have led him to become a key force in finding betting edges in more niche markets such as professional wrestling and entertainment awards.

Follow Collin Wilson @_Collin1 on Twitter/X.