Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning. Brett Davis-Imagn Images

ESPN FPI has intriguing prediction for who will win CFP National Championship

By Clark Dalton | Last updated Jun 3, 2025 6:44 PM ET

ESPN's first College Football Power Index for the 2025 season is high on the Texas Longhorns.

On Tuesday, ESPN's Neil Paine released the FPI ratings and projections for the 2025 season. It ranks the Longhorns as the No. 1 team in the country and gives them the best chance to win the national championship (22.2%).

FPI uses multiple statistics to predict outcomes, which is one reason it may favor the Longhorns. Last season, Texas finished third in the FBS in points allowed (15.3) and ranked 22nd in points scored (34.5).

This offseason, they lost multiple starters to the NFL, including defensive back Jahdae Barron, wide receiver Matthew Golden, quarterback Quinn Ewers and left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr.

The Longhorns, however, already have potential replacements on their roster, including QB Arch Manning.

Manning — the No. 1 recruit in the 2023 class, via 247Sports — replaced Ewers after he suffered an oblique injury against UTSA last season. In the 56-7 victory, he rushed for a 67-yard touchdown.

ARCH MANNING TAKES IT 67 YARDS TO THE HOUSE WITH HIS LEGS

It's the longest rush by a Texas QB since Vince Young in 2005. pic.twitter.com/AjU9uSli2c
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 15, 2024

Manning would start the team's next two games against Louisiana Monroe and Mississippi State. He won both starts, completing 68.3% of his passes for four touchdowns and tossing two interceptions during this span.

Manning, 21, must continue to build off his solid performances last season to keep the Longhorns in the national title hunt, and there's plenty of reason to believe he'll do that.

"I think there's something that's unique about Arch," Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian told ESPN's Pete Thamel in a story published April 18. "You can watch him throw and you see when you get up on him in person, man, he's a bigger guy than people think. When you watch him throw, the arm talent and deep ball is there."

Oddsmakers also like the Longhorns. As of Tuesday, FanDuel Sportsbook lists their national title odds at +600, tied with the Ohio State Buckeyes for the best in the FBS.

Coming off consecutive College Football Playoff semifinal appearances, expectations should be high for the Longhorns. With a promising young QB and a talented roster, they may have an excellent chance of winning their first national championship since the 2005 season.

Clark Dalton

Dalton is a 2022 journalism graduate of the University of Texas at Austin. He gained experience in sports media over the past seven years — from live broadcasting and creating short films to podcasting and producing. In college, he wrote for The Daily Texan. He loves sports and enjoys hiking, kayaking and camping.

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