The NHL offseason will be red-hot for the next two weeks, as a majority of the roster changes will occur involving the now-open buyout window, the June 27-28 NHL Draft and the opening of free agency on July 1.
It's going to be a busy few weeks, potentially highlighted by several critical contract negotiations that could ultimately spur some major trade activity.
Here are five defensemen entering contract negotiations that could lead to offseason-defining trades based on their projected contracts per AFP Analytics, a free contract-projection tool.
PuckPedia, a free website that tracks NHL salary cap information, was used to determine team cap space.
Evan Bouchard, RHD, Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers have most of their roster slots for next season locked up but still need to add a couple of depth pieces in addition to signing Bouchard. He is projected by AFP Analytics to earn a long-term contract extension worth close to $11M annually, which would eat up nearly all of the Oilers' cap space.
Edmonton could be forced to explore trading defenseman Mattias Ekholm ($6M cap hit, no trade protection), winger Evander Kane ($5.125M cap hit, 16-team trade protection) or multiple smaller pieces off the roster in order accommodate the defenseman with the third-most total points in the league over the last two seasons.
99.4 mph from Evan Bouchard. Maybe the best DMan bomb from point on power player. 2-0 Oilers. Trying to win 7th in a row. I fly to Edmonton tomorrow for Connor vs Connor (Bedard) Tuesday night on ESPN+ with @rayferraro21 pic.twitter.com/y09eqtJh0I
— BucciOT.Com (@Buccigross) December 10, 2023
Noah Dobson, RHD, New York Islanders
Dobson, like Bouchard, is due for a major raise. AFP Analytics projects Dobson on an eight-year contract worth more than $10M per season. The Islanders have around $20M in cap space and likely could afford Dobson and the few depth signings they need to make.
The issue here is Dobson's up-and-down play. His offensive numbers took a major step back this season, as he scored 39 points in his lowest output offensively since the 56-game 2021 season while struggling on the Islanders' 31st-ranked power play and 31st-ranked penalty kill. Despite a down season, the Islanders would likely recoup significant value in a hypothetical Dobson trade.
Aaron Ekblad, RHD, Florida Panthers
Ekblad is the only unrestricted free agent to make this list. If Florida finds a way to retain the 2014 No. 1 pick, there will be a domino effect. AFP Analytics is projecting Ekblad on a seven-year deal worth around $7.8M per season. The Panthers could be forced to trade from the bottom of their forward lineup to keep their top two defense pairings together for another season.
Forward Evan Rodrigues ($3M cap hit, no trade protection) would likely be the easiest for the Panthers to stomach in a trade, but they could be forced to also deal forward Eetu Luostarinen ($3M cap hit, no trade protection). The latter was a quiet force in these playoffs, scoring 19 points in 23 games.
Thomas Harley, LHD, Dallas Stars
Harley has one more season remaining on a contract with an annual cap hit of $4M. He's proven to be indispensable, carrying Dallas' blue line while superstar Miro Heiskanen was injured to start the playoffs.
Dallas has already been shedding space this offseason, and rumors surround winger Jason Robertson, which would be a massive domino to fall. AFP Analytics projects a long-term extension for Harley, eligible to sign on July 1, that could be worth around $10.75M per season.
K'Andre Miller, LHD, New York Rangers
Frank Seravalli of "The DFO Rundown" podcast indicated up to 15 teams are interested in acquiring Miller. The question feels less about whether Miller gets traded and more about what the Rangers would shake loose in a trade for the talented but inconsistent defenseman.
The Rangers have been linked to Los Angeles Kings unrestricted free agent Vladislav Gavrikov, a signing they'd be more likely to afford if Miller is no longer with the team.
The New York Rangers are ready for change, especially on defense.
— Daily Faceoff (@DailyFaceoff) June 19, 2025
Could Vladislav Gavrikov be a good fit?
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DFO Rundown | @JasonGregor, @frank_seravalli pic.twitter.com/FYPvIkCZam
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