As is often the case around this time of year, teams are inquiring about Pittsburgh Pirates players ahead of MLB's trade deadline (Thursday, 6 p.m. EST). This season, one of those key rumors is pitcher Mitch Keller. But, even though the Pirates are sellers and far from contending, they shouldn't deal their young former All-Star.
While trading players before they would command a raise has become an unfortunate staple of the Pirates' franchise, Keller, 29, is one player that even Bob Nutting doesn't need to rush to unload this summer.
According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Pirates, who are currently 18.5 games out of the National League Central, are actually debating if to move Keller or not. In other reports, teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Mets and Cubs have all expressed interest in Keller.
Most of the rumors involving Keller have the Pirates gaining a bat to help the future of their offense after a season that's seen the team struggle to provide run support for Keller, and more notably, ace Paul Skenes, who started the All-Star Game and is a Cy Young contender despite his 6-8 record.
The desperation to improve a lineup that's hitting just .230 collectively is why some argue it's time to get value back for Keller. The problem with that is it's too big of a gamble to take right now.
Keller has a solid 3.69 ERA in 22 starts so far this season. More importantly, he has 100 strikeouts in 127.0 innings and a 1.205 WHIP. He's also shown he can win when given support, going 13-9 and being named an All-Star in 2023.
But here's the dilemma: Keller is a quality arm, but it's not like he's going to net some superstar in return. There's no guarantee any prospect will work or progress to the Pirates' timeline. Keller is just as more valuable to the Pirates to stay on the team at least one more year compared to trying to cash in on his value now.
Keller has proven to be the only starter Pittsburgh can rely on to go deep in games behind Skenes. His current salary of $15.4M, and then a jump up to $16.9M, is still reasonable based on what he may command on the open market. Signing a pitcher like him at his age would likely cost Pittsburgh more than what they are paying Keller.
Keller's contact doesn't get to $20M until its final year in 2028.
If Keller was an impending free agent, then moving him would be a must for a team who rarely can re-sign talent. If he had only two years left, then an argument could be made to just get what you can get for him now.
However, Keller has three more years remaining on his current deal. In fact, Keller just signed a five-year, $77M deal last February.
Not only would trading Keller now make signing him to his current contract pointless in retrospect, but this is a year before any real discussions about him would have to take place.
There will always be teams wiling to make an offer for a pitcher like Keller to help during a pennant race, there's just no reason to rush dealing a valuable asset before you have to.
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