Has Cal Raleigh overtaken Aaron Judge in MVP race amid Yankee slugger's slump?

On July 23, New York Yankees’ megastar outfielder Aaron Judge had a commanding lead in the AL MVP race. Judge led all hitters in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. The only major stat he lagged in was home runs, as Seattle Mariners’ slugging catcher Cal Raleigh had edged him by two long balls, 39 to 37. As a result, those two players were jockeying for the lead in the AL MVP race.

Judge’s amazing campaign was interrupted by a flexor strain he suffered when making a throw from the outfield on July 23, however. He played the next game on July 25, going 0-3, an was then placed on the 10-day IL.

The good news is that Judge’s IL stint lasted for the minimal 10 days, returning on Aug. 5. However, since Judge has returned, he hasn’t been performing at his usual standard. In the month of August entering Sunday (10 games), Judge is hitting .219/.405/.438 with two home runs. He is still drawing a healthy number of walks, but his batting average, slugging percentage and home run rate are on the downtrend.

There is some measure of hope on the horizon, as Judge went 1-for-3 with two walks in Sunday’s victory over the St. Louis Cardinals. This could be a sign that his elbow is getting well and his slump will soon be over. However, the question that now lingers is whether or not Raleigh rushed past him in the AL MVP race during this brief but consequential period. It’s time for a closer look at the stats. 

All rankings for American League only entering Monday 

As things stand today, Judge still leads not only the AL, but all of baseball, in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage despite the dip in his productivity. If Raleigh is going to seize the crown from the reigning MVP, it will be because of his MLB-leading home run total. But is that doable?

Since the award’s creation, there isn’t a non-pitcher who won MVP with a batting average below .260 (Shohei Ohtani hit .257 with 46 home runs and a 3.18 ERA in 2021). Although they are important in today’s game, home run totals don’t always bring home the gold. To compare, let's look at the 2017 AL MVP race that was ultimately won by Jose Altuve. The Astros second baseman slashed .346/.410/.547 with 24 home runs, edging out Judge and his league-leading 52 home runs for the MVP.