Special situation could lure Arch Manning from Texas to NFL in 2026

Despite the general consensus being that Arch Manning will return to Texas next year, there's good reason to think the young quarterback would jump for a ripe opportunity in the NFL in 2026.

The biggest problem with Manning's resume is that the redshirt sophomore enters this season with only two starts at the college level. The more time he has as a starter, the more comfortable scouts and front offices feel about how they can gauge the quarterback's talent.

Per ESPN, league scouts want a quarterback to have approximately 25 starts before entering the draft. For Manning to do so, he'd have to play for the Longhorns in 2026. 

However, ESPN quoted two sources who think Manning would declare for the 2026 draft if he knew he'd be taken into a good situation.

Because Manning is getting paid from NIL and he comes from a well-known football family, Manning has no incentive to jump into the league if he's not ready. He can afford to see what the draft board looks like after Week 18 in January.

"They'll want to see which team has the No. 1 pick and if they've fired their coach -- which is pretty common -- [and] who the replacement is before jumping into the draft," said an NFC scouting director.

If an organization is drafting at No. 1 or near the top and it's a situation that Manning is happy to be in, he might be more apt to enter the 2026 draft.

Manning could also look at what coaches haven't been fired and what teams are more likely to draft first in the 2027 draft. If he would be going to a team he's not thrilled about, he might opt for a better situation in 2026.

Simply put, speculation surrounding Manning's draft plans isn't going away, even after Archie Manning's comments stating that his grandson would return to Texas next year.