NHL is expecting more slow-moving offseasons in the future

For better or worse, the NHL salary cap’s upper limit increase has not led to much movement this summer. In a recent interview with RG Media, a league executive, who has chosen to remain anonymous, believes offseasons like these will become the modus operandi for the foreseeable future.

The anonymous executive bluntly said, “Teams will do a good job of locking up their own players. Everybody in the league, except for a few teams, had a lot of cap space, and I think going forward, if you like a player, there’s no reason why you wouldn’t try to keep them yourself.”

Similarly, the executive furthered their original point, saying, “Sometimes teams look to make these changes, but sometimes it’s better not to make many changes and keep the guys you believe in because they know their character, work ethic and how they get along with their team. It makes more sense than going out and getting something that you’re not sure about.”

It doesn’t take long to prove their point, either. Taking a look back at our Top 50 Projections from 2023, eight players out of the top 10 (nine if you’re including Patrice Bergeron choosing to retire) left their respective clubs that offseason. Similarly, in 2024, seven out of our top 10 projected unrestricted free agents headed for greener pastures. This year? Only two.

Given that the salary cap will rise by the same percentage year on year for the next few seasons, there’s no reason to believe anything will change moving forward. Hypothetically speaking, the only way it may change is if the trio of Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel and Kirill Kaprizov heads to the open market next summer. If their respective clubs aren’t interested in a sign-and-trade, as the Vegas Golden Knights did with the Toronto Maple Leafs this offseason for Mitch Marner’s services, then teams may be inclined to keep their pocketbooks full to take a run at a game-changing talent.

Still, there’s no expectation that either of the three will become unrestricted free agents in less than a year, with most reporting suggesting that each will sign long-term extensions with their respective clubs. 

Should that be the case, next year’s free agent class will look similarly to this year’s, forecasting another eerily slow summer.