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Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette. Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

Revisiting the 'best case scenario' for each MLB team

By David Hill, Seth Carlson, Allen Settle, Lauren Amour, Kevin Henry, Taylor Bretl | Last updated Sep 15, 2025 1:08 PM ET

In March, with the regular season drawing closer each day, Yardbarker's team of MLB writers got together to identify what a best-case scenario might look like heading into the coming season, laying out cases for each of the American League and National League franchises.

Now, with the season coming to a close, it is the perfect opportunity to look back and see how things actually unfolded.

(Records and stats are all entering play on Monday.)

AL East

Toronto Blue Jays outfielder George Springer. Kevin Sousa-Imagn Images

Toronto Blue Jays (87-62) | Best case: 77-85 | No one could’ve expected a resurgence of this caliber by the 2025 Blue Jays. Widely projected to finish last in the AL East heading into this season, Toronto has ridden a revitalized George Springer and Bo Bichette as well as a veteran pitching staff to regular-season greatness. The American League isn’t exactly a gauntlet, either, giving the Blue Jays as much of a chance to make a run as any other contending club.

New York Yankees (83-66) | Best case: 86-76 | They were supposed to take a step back after losing outfielder Juan Soto to the crosstown rival Mets, but the Yankees have more than held their own in 2025 despite injuries to stars like starter Gerrit Cole and outfielder Aaron Judge and despite a concerning summer swoon. They should eclipse 86 wins rather easily, but whether New York captures back-to-back AL East titles is still to be determined.

Boston Red Sox (82-68) | Best case: 89-73 | This is looking like a solid projection, largely because the Red Sox have capitalized on matchups against AL East rivals in 2025 (28-18 versus teams in division). With an ace in lefty Garrett Crochet, a dominant closer in Aroldis Chapman and a solid core of position players, Boston could make some noise in a wide-open American League.

Tampa Bay Rays (73-76 ) | Best case: 84-78 | In what feels like a rare occurrence given their propensity to surprise, the Rays may actually underachieve our projected best-case record in 2025. It hasn’t been a season to remember in Tampa, but the Rays have some great building blocks to build momentum for the 2026 season, namely third baseman Junior Caminero.

Baltimore Orioles (69-80) | Best case: 88-74 | 2025 will go down as a lost season in Baltimore, as the Orioles won’t even come close to their best case of 88 wins. Instead of winning the AL East as several projection sites forecasted, former manager Brandon Hyde was fired in May, and the club never recovered under interim skipper Tony Mansolino.

-- Seth Carlson

AL Central

Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal. Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Detroit Tigers (85-65) | Best case: 90-72 | The Tigers should surpass the 90-win mark as they should win the AL Central for the first time since 2014. An injury scare for Tarik Skubal was not what the Tigers needed heading into the postseason, but their ace may not miss a start. If the Tigers are going to make noise in the postseason, they need Skubal at the top of his game.

Cleveland Guardians (78-71) | Best case: 92-70 | It has been a strange year in Cleveland, with pitchers Luis Ortiz and Emmanuel Clase being placed on administrative leave due to potential gambling violations. Despite being sellers at the deadline, the Guardians have proven resilient and remain in the wild-card hunt, although they may have dug too deep a hole to reach the postseason.

Kansas City Royals (75-75) | Best case: 90-72 | Aside from three weeks from April 23 through May 9, when the Royals went 16-2, they have been mediocre at best this season. Third baseman Maikel Garcia took a significant step forward, but the rest of the lineup proved underwhelming, torpedoing the Royals' chances.

Minnesota Twins (65-84) | Best case: 86-76 | Byron Buxton remained reasonably healthy this year, but that is about the only thing that went right. A fire sale at the trade deadline, despite having a chance at contending for a playoff berth, could mean that there will be some lean years ahead in Minnesota.

Chicago White Sox (57-93) | Best case: 63-99 | If the White Sox can play .500 ball the rest of the way, they will avoid losing 100 games this season. Although they have a long way to go before contending, the White Sox are starting to put together an interesting young core. Chances are, they will not contend in 2026, but a return to relevance may not be too far away.

-- David Hill

AL West

Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh (29) celebrates with first baseman Josh Naylor (12). Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

Seattle Mariners (82-68) | Best case: 92-70 | The Mariners' aggressive trade deadline, in which they added former All-Stars Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez, has kept their hopes for 90-plus wins and the elusive AL West crown intact.

Houston Astros (81-69) | Best case: 90-72 | The Astros would need to win nine of their remaining 12 contests to reach the 90-win mark. More importantly, however, the perennial powerhouse Astros are just one game behind the division-leading Mariners, keeping their hopes of claiming their eighth AL West title in the last nine years alive.

Texas Rangers (79-71) | Best case: 92-70 | Despite their offensive woes, Texas’ pitching staff, featuring a bounce-back season by former Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom, exciting leaps by former top prospect Jack Leiter, solid production from veterans Patrick Corbin and Tyler Mahle and an utterly dominant 1.73 ERA, 0.854 WHIP, 11-3 record and 129 strikeouts across 130 innings by veteran Nathan Eovaldi (pre-injury) have anchored the Rangers’ season. While they do not have a chance to reach their 92-game ceiling, they are only two games out of the final AL wild-card spot.

Athletics (70-80) | Best case: 81-81 | If the A’s rolled out a 10-game winning streak over their final games of 2025, they would still fall just short of 81 victories. However, the emergence of rookies Nick Kurtz (whose 32 homers in 105 games have him looking like a future AL MVP) and Jacob Wilson (whose .318 batting average ranks second in the AL behind Aaron Judge) has the club’s future looking bright.

Los Angeles Angels (69-81) | Best case: 75-83 | A 6-6 record over the Angels’ final 12 contests will get them to the 75-win mark. With three-game series against the Rockies and Royals (as well as the Astros and Brewers) remaining, Zach Neto, Mike Trout, Jo Adell and company have the opportunity to tie a bow around a solid regular season.

-- Allen Settle

NL East

Philadelphia Phillies relief pitcher Jhoan Duran. Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

Philadelphia Phillies (89-61) | Best case: 92-70 | The Phillies are one win (or one Mets loss) away from winning their second straight division title, but it won't mean much until they can prove themselves in October. Philadelphia’s trade-deadline pickups of closer Jhoan Duran and OF Harrison Bader have paid off and seem to be setting up for a deep postseason run.

New York Mets (77-73) | Best case: 86-76 | On June 12, the Mets were 45-24 with a 5.5-game lead in the NL East. They've gone 33-49 since, and are 12 games back of the Phillies for first place. Pitching-staff struggles and failure to hit with runners in scoring position are two of the main reasons for the Mets’ collapse.

Miami Marlins (70-80) | Best case: 54-108 | Miami’s encouraging season reached its peak on Aug. 3 following a sweep of the Yankees at home to reach a .500 record. Although they've gone 16-25 since, the Marlins have far exceeded expectations and look to further improve in 2026.

Atlanta Braves (66-83) | Best case: 97-65 | Winless through their first seven games of the season, the Braves never rebounded as many thought they would. While the return of OF Ronald Acuna Jr. and the emergence of rookie catcher Drake Baldwin pumped some life into their offense, the club suffered too many injuries and was never able to get back on track.

Washington Nationals (62-87) | Best case: 78-84 | Only three games under .500 on June 6 at 30-33, the Nats then went on an 11-game losing streak and never fully recovered. A few weeks later, they fired manager Dave Martinez and GM Mike Rizzo. Following a tumultuous campaign, Washington hopes to continue building for the future and developing its young stars, with 22-year-old James Wood leading the way.

-- Lauren Amour

NL Central

Milwaukee Brewers manager Pat Murphy. Mark Hoffman-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

Milwaukee Brewers (91-59) | Best case: 90-72 | After a 93-win campaign in 2024, the Brewers lost notable names in the offseason, including shortstop Willy Adames and closer Devin Williams. Expectations dipped following the departures, with Milwaukee projected to win just 82 games, per BetMGM. But with Pat Murphy winning the franchise’s first Manager of the Year award, the prediction was a minimal dip, which was proven wrong. Now sitting at 91 wins — six shy of the franchise record — Murphy may be on track to win the honor again, proving the odds wrong once more.

Chicago Cubs (85-64) | Best case: 91-71 | Currently 19 games above .500, Chicago is on pace for a 92-win season — one shy of the projected ceiling. Although they trail the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central by 5.5 games, the Cubs are closing in on a playoff berth — currently holding the top NL wild-card spot.

Cincinnati Reds (74-75) | Best case: 86-76 | In Terry Francona’s first season as Cincinnati's manager, the Reds looked on track for a postseason appearance — with a 67-60 record as of Aug. 19. But momentum has faded, as they've dropped 15 of their last 22 games. While the young core continues to show flashes of potential, the 86-win mark now feels out of reach.

St. Louis Cardinals (73-77) | Best case: 79-83 | In a rebuilding year, the Cardinals are on pace to finish with the best case of 79 wins — a respectable mark given the circumstances. While a postseason berth is nearly off the table, young bats like Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan, Ivan Herrera and Masyn Winn offer hope that St. Louis could exceed this season's total next year.

Pittsburgh Pirates (65-85) | Best case: 83-79 | Pittsburgh is closing in on another disappointing season, currently 11 wins shy of its projected 76-win mark, per BetMGM, with 22 games remaining. Paul Skenes has delivered another Cy Young-worthy season, leading the majors with a 1.92 ERA, but the Pirates’ offense — last in MLB in OPS — has kept Pittsburgh from gaining any real traction

-- Taylor Bretl

NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman (5) and designated hitter Shohei Ohtani (17). Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

Los Angeles Dodgers (84-65) | Best case 100-62 | The Dodgers won’t get to 100 wins, but they also won’t need to to clinch another division title. A very interesting series this week at home against the Phillies may indicate how October-ready the defending world champs really are.

San Diego Padres (82-68) | Best case 88-74 | For San Diego, there’s good and bad when it comes to the close of the regular season. The Padres face the Mets on the road for three games and get Milwaukee at home for three, but also have the White Sox and Diamondbacks for three each as well, meaning the road to catch the Dodgers in the division is bumpy and opportunity-filled at best.

San Francisco Giants (75-74) | Best case 79-83 | San Francisco has been one of the surprise teams in baseball this season, and has fought its way back into the wild-card picture thanks to its late-season play and the Mets’ inability to win consistently. Entering Monday just 1.5 games behind New York, San Francisco still has a chance ... which is more than we thought they would have when the season began.

Arizona Diamondbacks (75-75) | Best case 90-72 | Injuries derailed Arizona’s season quickly, and questions in the bullpen weren’t answered in time for the Diamondbacks to make a real postseason push. Finishing near .500 would be a solid season for many franchises, but it will go down as a big disappointment in the desert.

Colorado Rockies (40-103) | Best case 75-87 | We knew it was going to be a tough year for the Rockies, but didn’t expect it to be a season where manager Bud Black was fired in May and 100 losses were easily passed. This will be the worst season in franchise history record-wise, but it appears the Rockies will not lose 121 games, meaning the Chicago White Sox's all-time loss record is safe for another season.

-- Kevin Henry

David Hill

Based in the mountains of Vermont, Dave has over a decade of experience writing about all things baseball. Just don't ask his thoughts on the universal DH.

Taylor Bretl

Taylor Bretl writes about Major League Baseball with a focus on the Milwaukee Brewers. He is founder of Around the Globe Baseball.

Kevin Henry

A member of the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA), Kevin Henry has been covering MLB and MiLB for nearly two decades. Those assignments have included All-Star Games and the MLB postseason, including the World Series. Based in the Denver area, Kevin calls Coors Field his home base, but travels throughout North America during the season to discover the best stories possible

Lauren Amour

Lauren Amour is a writer and editor based in the Greater Philadelphia area. She works as an editor and writer at Yardbarker, covering MLB and the Philadelphia Phillies.

Seth Carlson

Seth Carlson is an experienced writer and editor based in the NYC area with a particular love for all things baseball. He has a demonstrated history of delivering insightful analysis and engaging content across multiple outlets and industries. Seth brings his expertise and commitment to high-quality coverage to Yardbarker’s readers.

Allen Settle

Allen Settle is a lifelong baseball fan who has never given up on his passion. You can find his writing at Yardbarker and Prospects1500. He is a former writer at Fansided’s Marlin Maniac and Rising Apple

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