Why Cal Raleigh shouldn't win AL MVP over Aaron Judge despite historic season

This has been a historic year for Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh, who currently leads baseball in home runs with 54. Raleigh set a single-season home-run record for backstops and has tied Mickey Mantle for the most single-season home runs by a switch-hitter with time to put some distance between them. 

As with any MLB-leading home-run total, Raleigh’s power numbers have placed him squarely in the MVP conversation. As things stand, it has come down to a two-man race between Raleigh and New York Yankees legendary outfielder Aaron Judge for AL MVP. 

And while Judge has built a stellar case to take home the award, Raleigh’s own case is gaining serious steam. Many analysts and TV personalities alike have favored Raleigh. Without a doubt, the historic catcher is putting forth an MVP-caliber performance.

However, there are numerous reasons Raleigh’s MVP case should fall short. To start, let’s compare their numbers. (All rankings are in American League only.)

Cal Raleigh vs. Aaron Judge 

(WAR, Def and wRC+ values are from FanGraphs. Def is short for defense. wRC+ stands for weighted runs created plus, which takes the sum of a player’s offensive achievements and weighs them against the MLB average, with the average being a value of 100.)  

Judge currently leads not only the AL but all of baseball in each slash-line metric (AVG, OBP and SLG) as well as in OPS and wRC+. He is six home runs shy of Raleigh. And despite the fact that Raleigh has excellent defensive numbers, Judge still leads MLB in WAR. This gives Judge several offensive advantages over Raleigh.

Raleigh, on the other hand, leads only in home runs. But unlike Judge, his defense has sparkled. Raleigh owns the second-highest defensive WAR for a backstop, fourth-highest in the AL. Other than his defense and home-run total, Raleigh has one other advantage over Judge.

The reigning AL MVP Judge fell on the IL with a flexor strain in his right arm after the Yankees' game on July 25, returning on Aug. 5. Therefore, Judge has played 140 games this season compared to Raleigh’s 147 entering Tuesday. This isn’t a sizable difference, but it will come under consideration nonetheless.

After returning from injury, Judge fell into a slump at the plate and has spent time at DH, which weighs on his defensive numbers. While his bat has regained form and he is semi-regularly playing right field again, Judge’s arm is still not at 100%, which weighs even further on his already suffering defensive metrics. However, there are more valid reasons to deny Raleigh the crown.

If there is one major strike against Raleigh, it is his .244 batting average. Should he finish the season with this average and win the award, he would do so with the lowest batting average of any position-player MVP. His .359 on-base percentage would also fall in the lower echelons of MVP history, ranking 16^th-lowest among position-player MVPs. 

Raleigh’s MVP case hinges heavily on his place in history. But even then, not all historical seasons win the gold.

Raleigh has indeed made significant history, and his numbers are certainly elite. However, he hasn’t done better than Judge and, therefore, shouldn’t be named MVP.