Biggest factor that may keep Kyle Tucker from cashing in during MLB free agency

Many experts rank Kyle Tucker as the top free agent available for Major League Baseball teams to acquire this offseason. While some predict he could earn a $400 million deal this winter, MLB executives doubt it will happen for one major reason.

In an article for ESPN.com, Jesse Rogers surveyed 16 MLB executives on different scenarios that could occur this offseason. One of the questions was, "Will Kyle Tucker get more than $400 million, and who will give it to him?"

Of the 16 executives surveyed, 10 said Tucker would not reach $400 million in his deal, while one predicted the 28-year-old would sign a 10-year, $350 million contract with the New York Yankees.

So why not $400 million? It has nothing to do with the uncertainty surrounding the 2027 campaign or the current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), which is set to expire after this season. Instead, it’s all about a left calf strain that caused Tucker to miss action in September. 

Tucker played in 136 games for the Chicago Cubs in 2025, but it marked the second straight year the four-time All-Star had missed a significant stretch due to injury. In 2024, with the Houston Astros, Tucker played only 78 games because of what was initially diagnosed as a right shin contusion but was later revealed to be a right shin fracture.

ESPN's polling revealed that those injuries are a top concern for some MLB executives.

"In fact, one executive opined that if Tucker was healthy the entire season (2025), the above dollar figure would start with a five, not a four," Rogers wrote.

Tucker showed his worth for the Cubs, slashing .266/.377/.464 with an OPS+ of 143 (MLB average is 100). His 4.6 bWAR was tied for the third-highest for Chicago, trailing Nico Hoerner (6.2) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (6.0).

Yet for all Tucker's impressive statistics, it may be that September stretch with his left calf that potential suitors will remember the most.

Certainly, any injury history won't cause a team to doubt Tucker's ability to be a game-changer for a lineup. However, it might lead teams to offer less money, resulting in Tucker's contract including opt-outs or other clauses that make it more appealing if the total dollar amount is lower.