Does Chargers' Justin Herbert belong in same tier as Patrick Mahomes and other elite QBs after third playoff loss?

Does Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers belong among the upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks after another playoff loss?

Herbert is now 0-3 in the playoffs after the New England Patriots beat the Chargers, 16-3, in the AFC wild-card round on Sunday night. The QB, who finished 19-of-31 passing for 159 yards, took blame for the loss. 

Before the start of the season, The Athletic's Mike Sando published his annual QB tiers. The tiers are numbered 1-5, with one being the best. Thirty-four of 50 voters placed Herbert in Tier 2. Like a Tier 1 passer, those in Tier 2 can carry their teams, but not as frequently. 

"A lot of people have him as an automatic 1," an offensive coordinator said of the sixth-year QB. "I want him to take it. It seems like he is almost there, but he hasn't really done it." 

Now, it's fair to wonder if Herbert will ever vault into the same QB tier as Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) and others.  

Why Justin Herbert may remain in the tier below Patrick Mahomes

Sando revisited his tiers in December 2025. He noted voters will consider the Chargers' offensive line issues when assessing Herbert in 2026. 

The Chargers lost offensive tackles Joe Alt (ankle) and Rashawn Slater (knee) to injuries, leaving the unit unable to protect the QB. Herbert took a career-worst 54 sacks in the regular season. Per Pro Football Reference, he was pressured on a career-high 29.8 percent of his dropbacks. So, it's not surprising the QB was sacked six times in the loss to the Patriots.  

Mahomes, however, has played with subpar O-lines throughout his eight-year career and still managed to post a 17-4 playoff record and win three Super Bowls. When he became the Chiefs full-time starter in 2018, he was pressured on 33.8 percent of his dropbacks (via PFR). He still led Kansas City to the AFC Championship Game that season. 

That's not to say Herbert isn't talented. You don't throw for the second-most passing yards (24,820) through a player's first six seasons in league history without it. 

But like most QBs, Herbert struggles to elevate an offense without an elite supporting cast. That's what separates him from the players in the Mahomes tier.

Why there's still hope for Justin Herbert

Herbert — who's in the third year of a five-year, $262.5M contract — would benefit from playing for a better organization. The Chargers, of course, have featured former star QBs Dan Fouts and Philip Rivers, yet have never won a Super Bowl. 

QB Matthew Stafford's career turned when the Detroit Lions dealt him to the Los Angeles Rams before the 2021 season. In his first 12 seasons with Detroit, Stafford went 0-3 in the playoffs. Since then, he has won a Super Bowl and has the Rams on the verge of winning another after a 34-31 win over the Carolina Panthers in the NFC wild-card round. (Stafford was placed in Tier 1 in Sando's QB tiers.) 

Like Stafford, Herbert may need a trade later in his career to reach his potential. Playing for a more successful franchise would give talent evaluators a better opportunity to determine his standing among NFL QBs.

Fair or not, postseason success sets the bar for the cream of the crop of NFL QBs, and Herbert has yet to clear it. Until he does, he'll be just outside that group.