Red Sox potential Achilles' heel showing in 2026 projections

The Boston Red Sox may have a problem in 2026.

The Red Sox have lost a significant amount of power from their lineup over the past few months. Designated hitter Rafael Devers, who hit 15 homers in 73 games in Boston, was traded to the Giants in a deal that could be considered addition by subtraction. Third baseman Alex Bregman departed in free agency after the Red Sox reportedly did not believe he had an offer from the Cubs. While Bregman is not the same type of power hitter that Devers is, his 18 home runs in 2025 were the third most on the Red Sox roster.

Those losses have reflected in at least one projection model. ZiPS, a projection system created by Fangraphs' Dan Szymborski, does not foresee the Red Sox having a single player to hit at least 20 home runs. The Red Sox are the only team in those projections not to have any 20+ home run hitters.

Boston Red Sox lack of power could derail 2026 hopes

The Red Sox did take steps to address the lineup. First baseman Willson Contreras was acquired from the Cardinals to give Boston a more consistent option. Contreras has hit at least 20 homers in four of his last five seasons; however, his career high is 24 home runs.

Likewise, shortstop Trevor Story and outfielder Wilyer Abreu surpassed the 20-homer threshold for the Red Sox in 2025. Story, who led the Red Sox with 25 homers, appeared in over 100 games for the first time since 2021, making him a risky option to count on for a full season. Abreu may receive more recognition for his defensive prowess, but he has also improved his on base and contact rates in 2025. He may be the Red Sox best power option.

As the Red Sox are expected to contend in 2026, any shortcomings will likely be addressed by the trade deadline. However, if the Red Sox stumble out of the gate due to their lineup, their projected lack of power may be the reason.